Tesla and Sheer Power of Will

I'm getting a Tesla. 

Two reasons why:

One
I feel morally compelled to, given that climate change is taking the Unbelievably Bad trajectory - it's worse than most worse-case-scenario projections. Record-breaking summer heat worldwide and record-breakingly fierce tropical storms worldwide should be enough to convince everyone. Even places that genuinely try hard, like California, experience Beijing-like pollution due to severely dried air, due to global warming.

This post isn't about that. If you know me well enough to read my blog, you're probably already on board.

Two
Tesla disrupted everyone. I came to write that. This bit flipped in my head one recent morning and had me planning a purchase for the last couple weeks.

Friends who talk cars with me know that I've been an obsessive BMW fan for years. But Tesla's world makes BMW's look dumb. As I recently wrote to my friend Robert:

The Tesla screens embarrass BMW’s iDrive. Why is Spotify support part of a $3k package? Why should I be satisfied with a 10% improvement in MPG? Why is maintenance $2k a year after a short warranty period? Why do I need suspension and cooling totally redone after 60k miles? Why is quality of life only improved once every 7 years on a generation change? Why has nobody made *any* progress on Autopilot? Why should I indulge in BMW’s fan culture of collecting old cars and pouring unreasonable amounts of money to keeping them running? 

Tesla's cars are flawed. I don't care at all about the debate surrounding its stock, but there are clearly valid criticisms of the product.

Quality
The quality-issues are well-documented - perhaps at their most representative, while journalistically verified, in this NYT piece. The oft-quoted "manufacturing hell" turned to "delivery hell" because it turns out that the car business is a complicated logistics machine. Let's be honest - manufacturing hell isn't finished, either; it's just turned to quality hell. A Model 3 I test drove had a clear issue with wind noise. Owners (or would-be owners) with paint issues abound. 

But there's precedent for improvement in quality. The first cars that were exported from Japan were laughing stocks on wheels. Quality was terrible, as is every country's or every manufacturer's when it first starts. Japan learned and improved its quality, to the point that the Japanese word kaizen (continuous improvement) is taught in business schools worldwide. Moreover, Korea followed Japan on a path to quality. China may be at the start of that path now.

Also, we fail to notice that we're passively forgiving established manufacturers for their quality issues. Toyota, synonymous with quality itself, tarnished its image with stacks of dangerous recalls for its American-built cars, even Lexii. American and Korean cars frequently have wide panel gaps, a criticism the car guys level at Tesla all the time. For years, BMW has been notorious for electrical "gremlins" causing ambiguous issues - especially in the first year of production of any model. Anecdotally, my Mini - a BMW-designed-and-built car - had a panel fall off at speed

No car maker has flawless quality. We should talk in percentages, not black-and-white. Tesla is worse now, but improvement is learned.

Also, I have absolutely no idea how this bug can come to be, but it's hilarious.

Performance / "driver's car" status
Sporting performance is learned too. The Model 3 Performance's track mode seems to have figured it out, mostly by way of listening to a highly-qualified "user" (ie an accomplished test driver) and tweaking the software on the fly. 

Moving on..
Tesla learns the automotive industry's game more quickly than other manufacturers are learning Tesla's game. While Tesla has nixed the performance criticism and continues to work on its quality matters, nobody else has learned simple online ordering, straightforward trade-in offers by Blue Book value, documenting issues at delivery to be fixed at any time later for free, over-the-air software updates (even for bug fixes), Autopilot, or comprehensive charging networks. Or, with very limited exceptions, a 200+ mile EV powertrain. 

More concisely, Tesla is getting to its [BMW] M3 fighter way faster than BMW is getting to its Tesla fighter.

It's the automotive chapter of the famous essay / investment thesis, Software is Eating the World. (Side note: that essay has not aged well, but the central idea that a software-defined thing will disrupt its incumbents is pretty compelling.) 

Power of Will
Tesla didn't disrupt by software alone. Having a car company isn't easy. Employee accounts and Elon interviews both point to fanatical 100-hour weeks. This strikes me as one of those historically rare moments of intense, focused concentration by a handful of brilliant people. I think this was necessary, perhaps more than the software, to disrupt the auto industry.

An incomplete list of other things that came out of such effort:
  • Smartphones
  • Desktop computers
  • Jumbo jets?
  • The moon landing
  • (regrettably) The A-bomb
  • Some unknown quantity of scientific projects that I'm not savvy enough to know about. Gene sequencing? 

I think the single biggest disappointment that comes with 'adulthood' is finding out that the people who do that kind of work are few and far between. (And the proportion that have that talent but burn it on finance robs the world of yet still more greatness.)

Shoshin
Quoth Wikipedia:
"Shoshin (初心) is a word from Zen Buddhism meaning "beginner's mind." It refers to having an attitude of openness, eagerness, and lack of preconceptions when studying a subject, even when studying at an advanced level, just as a beginner would."

Here, have that in a chill beat to study to:

Tesla may be shoshin thinking applied to EVs. How else do you get to powering a two-ton luxury car with lots of little laptop batteries? If "delivery logistics hell" is shipping a few thousand cars to customers (remember, incumbent automakers ship millions per year), it at once screams "rookie mistake" but perhaps should also scream "rookie opportunity."
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