tag:blakerson.com,2013:/posts blakerson.com 2024-02-09T20:51:51Z Blake Ellison tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1621785 2020-11-27T04:17:53Z 2020-11-27T04:17:53Z Home

Up until now, the concept of Home was a trip to DFW for the holidays. Didn't matter whether it was a drive or a flight. Arriving was a great comfort. But I never looked forward to turkey, or football, or Black Friday. For me, the draw was always friends.


My reuniting 'family,' such as it was, was generally just my mom and me. It's always been good to see her, and it's a very rare Thanksgiving that I don't spend with her, but since we're always in touch, the friend reunions sparked joy.


Whether I was late teens or early 30s, the pattern generally looked the same: gather at my suburb's Starbucks, or at a friend's house and play games. Things picked up where they left off, no matter who could make it out. 


No longer. In late August and early September, I took a road trip to Texas to move my mom out to California. She's here now (and the trip was only mildly psychologically traumatic). But it means that "home" has moved. No more November in DFW for me.


It's a life transition. By this point next year I'll almost certainly be married (don't get too excited - this pandemic means there won't be grand, special moments). My lady and our parents will all be here in San Diego. But the lady and I will be making that 'home' that others will come to. 


As I write, it's Thursday night. Everyone's home, having eaten, and it's a quiet night. I'm alone, due to a last-minute pandemic mishap that meant my wonderful lady was exposed to more people than usual.  Even though it's actually been years, it still feels like the right thing to do would be to gather at someone's house in Arlington and plug in some games for an all-nighter. 

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1583856 2020-08-15T20:32:09Z 2021-03-25T11:52:25Z Cake and Retro Games
It's impossible to dig up 'those funny tweets I saw sometime recently,' so I'll paraphrase them:
  • Being an adult is being able to buy a cake without needing a reason.
  • The family needed something to lift our spirits, so I brought home a sheet cake from Costco. My child DEMANDED to know whose birthday it was.
This "adulthood + bad times = cake" idea got incepted for sure. It wasn't long until a nostalgia-fueled viewing of Nintendo 64 games lit up a light bulb:

Hey, I'm an adult, I can finally go back and add Wave Race 64 and Pilotwings 64 to my collection! I always wanted those as a kid! 

They were each about $25 on Amazon and hilariously easy to buy.

Extending the "I'm an adult" justification, and because my brain could use a vacation, here I am, writing up notes on 25-year-old games.
  • Wave Race 64 is by far the better of the two. This game holds up wonderfully! Like many of the N64 heavy hitters, this was a launch title intended to show off the system's supposed graphical prowess. It's small in scope, with only about 10 tracks, but this was really an achievement. 
  • In classic Nintendo fashion, it controls fantastically, with a satisfying feel and depth that still engage me now. In trying to make tight turns I find myself jamming that thumbstick. My goodness - gameplay involving water physics must have been a ridiculous problem to solve in the 90s. 
  • They spent polygon budgets really wisely - characters' chests look blocky, but you rarely see characters from the front, and hey, they have life vests on so their chests should look square. That detail aside, the fast action and focus on the water means you don't notice other hardware limitations.
  • I adore the Pilotwings series. Even if each game is disappointingly short. The SNES original is really just 10 "levels" - and that's actually 5 levels and a hard mode for each. The 64 version is a nice bump up from that, but you're looking mostly at about 12 levels (albeit with a few more things to do per level) and a few bonus ones. You could crush this one in a day if you wanted.. but you probably won't want to. The core Pilotwings gameplay is there, and one has to admire the devs' technical performance to get a N64 launch game to show terrain at a wide distance... but you can tell this was a game rushed for launch. The 'bells and whistles' that can be added late to game - sound effects, music, UI - are all so rough I'm amazed they got released under Nintendo's publishing. The text on screen in particular looks like debug text, which gives me a laugh now. That one detail can paint a whole picture of the kind of situation these devs were in to get this thing out on time.
  • Nintendo has a history of getting the best out of its own hardware and seemingly not sharing that wisdom with third-party developers. Pilotwings 64 had fantastic draw distance - the kind you would need to see where your airplane is going to land. Crazy to think that other game developers couldn't draw out more than about 10 feet. So if you were a 90s fanboy about to buy a console, you were super jazzed by the amazing landscapes you saw as part of the Pilotwings promo, and the amazing lifelike quality of Wave Race's water... and then the rest of the library didn't live up to the promise. 
Objectively, the 64 didn't do amazingly well. 33 million units sold is a solid performance for a 90s game console, but Nintendo was the incumbent winner coming out of the fourth generation and lost the mantle to the first PlayStation, which sold over 100 million. 

It's clear in retrospect that the transition to 3D was anyone's game to win. It was the wild west. Now that 3D games are very firmly established as we close out the 8th generation, it's fascinating to go back and see the decisions made by game developers before conventions were established. Who did what with the technology they had on hand?
  • PlayStation devs seemed to have it better. They got a few more polygons and way more storage, thanks to CD-ROM. 
  • Square tried to have its cake, and eat it too, with Final Fantasy VII. On the one hand, they decided to use the cheap storage of CD-ROM to produce a JRPG of epic scale. On the other, it showed a vision for games that looked like movies - and that game was a very rough execution on that ideal. It would take 25 more years to make good on that vision, with Remake
  • Nintendo contracted a flight sim developer, which had never made games before, to produce Pilotwings 64. That may explain the success with only the draw distance...
  • Some PlayStation game devs used the excess storage to store CD audio soundtracks, deciding that audio needed priority or that video games benefited from the 'authenticity' of major-label soundtracks.
  • PlayStation games also brought about - and this one was big - voice acting! For Metal Gear Solid, hours and hours of dialog were performed, not unlike a radio drama. 
  • Not everyone who wanted games and movies to meld reached for recorded video. Metal Gear Solid also relied on cutscenes, which ultimately became the standard.
  • Nintendo (and noticeably only Nintendo, never third-party devs) did its best when it played to its strengths, to cover up the lack of horsepower. Super Mario 64's art direction was blocky, solid colors, and occasionally texture-mapped. But it always felt natural. Four controller ports and instant load times meant that bigger groups of people cherish countless hours spent engrossed in rounds of Mario Kart 64, Goldeneye 007, and Super Smash Bros. 
  • It's in that context that Wave Race 64 truly shines. With great racing gameplay and visuals that focus on what matters most (seeing the waves in front of you), it shows that Nintendo occasionally had 3D gaming figured out at its very dawn. Best $25 I've spent this year.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1520401 2020-03-16T04:31:19Z 2020-03-16T04:31:20Z An incomplete list of life soundtrack moments I don't want to forget
I'm the kind of person who associates songs (or maybe playlists or albums) with moments in life.

If you're one of those and you know me, then maybe you'll get a kick out of what is otherwise a personal, dear-diary moment of nostalgia.

Here goes: moments when the memory and the soundtrack both hit just right.
  • Schooling the neighborhood boys in Goldeneye to The Prodigy's The Fat of the Land
  • Late nights with IRC, Winamp and ICQ, to Aphex Twin
  • Rolling to Fort Worth (for no reason whatsoever; there was nothing to do) with my cousin, to Thievery Corporation's The Mirror Conspiracy
  • Rocket Arena 3 to Daft Punk's Homework
  • Riding safely(?) in Alex's race-tuned Jetta to early Jamiroquai
  • Rainy early summers to Olive
  • Riding unsafely in a gamer friend's pickup from Quakecon to Whataburger, to Dzihan & Kamien
  • Visiting a friend from high school choir in a faraway suburb to The Avalanches' Since I Left You
  • Clearing my head while adjusting to college on fast drives through western Austin, to John Mayer's Heavy Things
  • Falling head-over-heels to Common's Like Water For Chocolate
  • Thinking of the guys and triumphant returns to dorm life, and a female bestie who's one of the guys, while walking around Spain to Jimmy Eat World and Jamiroquai's Dynamite
  • Drives home from college, Austin to Dallas, late at night, in the amber glow of a 3-series, to the Cowboy Bebop soundtrack
  • Finishing a college thesis while thinking Lupe Fiasco was the first hip-hop that ever hit me personally
  • Recovering from college hangovers to The Sushi Club
  • Riding Tokyo Metro on a wide-eyed first visit, to Basement Jaxx's Crazy Itch Radio
  • Driving a hilariously slow Japanese domestic Mitsubishi Mirage from dreary Shimane to sunny Hiroshima, to Bitter:Sweet
  • Drives through the Dallas area from home to Tei-An, and to K-town, and to Addison and back home again, all on Saturday nights, all in a worn-out Mazda RX-8, to m-flo compilations and Funky DL's Blackcurrent Jazz 2
  • Flying to Japan to Nujabes and the Lost in Translation soundtrack
  • Working the hardest I've ever worked, with the Pacific Ocean tantalizingly close, to Basement Jaxx's Scars
  • Crashing on Aroon's couch and seeing Silicon Valley life to M83's Midnight City
  • Pumping myself up to stride in to work in Tokyo (what?! I did that?!), while visions of startups danced in my head, to Kaskade's remix of Samantha James' Waves of Change
  • Walking through intolerably hot Tokyo summers to Funky DL's Nights in Nippon
  • Building a startup with my brother to Bop Alloy's Save the Day
  • Spending days walking through pouring rain in Kagoshima (it's a long story) to Utada
  • Staggering home from another night of Tokyo drinks to Bop Alloy's The Boy With No Name
  • Falling in love with a Japanese model to Late Night Alumni and Funky DL's From Street to Sweet
  • Being a front-end developer for a living to The One-Ups
  • Driving a Mini across Dallas in a gorgeous sunset to Eric's house, to the Supreme Beings of Leisure
  • Returning to California, and the games industry, and landing a dream job, to Marcus D's Wax and Sonomad's self-titled album
  • Discovering Amy Winehouse entirely too late, over the world's best cocktail (the old fashioned at Neighborhood Services), with Eric
  • Recovering from an E3 hangover to The Super Soul Bros
  • Flying to Japan to Nitsua
Wow. I may not be done with this list, but I am at a stopping point. I have an unbelievable amount of happy memories and adventures. If you're a friend who had anything to do with any part of this - the music or the adventure - I can't thank you enough. 
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1393167 2019-04-03T04:44:54Z 2019-04-03T04:44:54Z Putting Money (and Foot) Where Mouth Is

I promised the Internet I'd get a Tesla.

I tried, but had to turn down the car, send it away, and cancel the transaction.

I planned to wait until the Standard Range Model 3 dropped, and as soon as it did I placed my order. In 2 weeks to the day, the car had arrived, driven right to my doorstep by a Tesla delivery guy.

I was hit badly with the quality issues I wrote about. The internet is obsessed with panel gaps and paint issues, and some of that is overblown, but my car was a bit... asymmetrical. Portions of metal missing clearcoat and/or blue paint were exposed. The rear taillights had a gap big enough to nearly fit my pinky finger. 

The issue that made me turn the car away, however, was a gap in the rubber lining between roof panels. I had no idea where water would go - would it enter the body at the roof? Would that cause rust or electrical gremlins?

Seeing that gap, delivery went from "not great" to "stressful." Thankfully, an interruption in the paperwork process gave me cover to take a breath, text a couple Tesla fan friends, and reach the common sense solution to walk away from the car.

Once I refused the car, things went smoothly. The guy promised to destroy existing paperwork, gave my car's keys back, said thank you, and promptly drove away. 

It only took one phone call to get my deposit back, too. I called and asked for it on a Saturday morning, and it reached my bank on Tuesday.

Tesla's people were universally nice. I was prepared to go to war to get my deposit back and was delighted to see it totally wasn't necessary.

I look forward to getting one someday.

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1357122 2019-04-03T04:25:38Z 2019-04-03T04:25:39Z Work, 30 Years Hence

I was recently asked: 

What will work be like 30 years in the future?

I'll be speaking on it at UCSD! I go once a year or so to my graduate alma mater and talk jobs (or do mock interviews), but the most recent invitation had a really intriguing premise.

The talk hasn't happened yet, but I'm super excited to have been invited to this one by my dear friend Tina. 

So as a means of preparation, let's talk about it! Here are some thoughts that may or may not find their way into the talk later:

Change will be driven by the private sector

Working practices evolve in the private sector first, then trickle to non-profit and public. In the long run, it affects everyone.

In the US, government will fail to protect workers. China and Japan never had the pretense of doing so. Europe will probably be the sole major economic region to protect or advance workers' interests.

However, regulation is not the only way in which the world improves. Private companies' competition for labor will affect your ways of working. 

Software is Eating the World

That phrase is primarily an investment thesis written in 2011. I have many, many thoughts about that essay and why it's close to the point but fails to hit the nail squarely. (Worse, the examples touted have not aged well. Zynga was never going to replace Nintendo or Sony, Shutterfly was never going to replace the printed photo shop at your local pharmacy when cloud storage already was going to, and Groupon was never destined to be the world's biggest direct marketer. But that's Silicon Valley hyperbole for you.)

But the fundamental wisdom - that software will inevitably and inextricably get involved in all facets of life and work - is correct. Amazon was software eating WalMart. Uber is software eating taxi hailing. Tesla is software eating automotive design. Software eating manufacturing is also known as automation, which is already the bogeyman ending the blue collar labor class in the OECD countries. 30 years hence, that work will be done. 

You will be a knowledge worker.

You know that Japanese phrase "monozukuri," pastorally referring to making things with your bare hands? Like the 12th generation sake maker, still doing it the old fashioned way?

Yeah, that's not you.

It's beautiful, but that's not your future.

We are in the midst of an industrial revolution centered on software.

Software is already pivotal to virtually all jobs, regardless of field. Any professional uses software as a tool to accelerate their productivity, and the alternative is a stark idea.

  • Business practitioners spend their days in Microsoft Office rather than typewriting memos that get hand-delivered and generating their own forecasts by hand.
  • Scientists spend their days in R or Python, regardless whether the science is hard or soft, rather than doing their own statistics by hand, bringing predictive rigor to everything from physics to political science.
  • The creative class - artists, designers, or musicians - are on their computers all day, rather than doing their work on fragile paper in ways that are extremely difficult to tweak, reproduce or mass produce.

In most of these cases, these professionals aren't programming and don't have to know how. They simply have fluent usage of a tool. Look now at any job description, and odds are you'll find at least one requirement (or desired skill) to use a piece of software effectively.

So if software is eating the entire world, whether you're doing business, working at an ad agency, manufacturing industrial equipment, or managing distribution of donors' money at sites across Southeast Asia, that creates an unbelievable demand for the creation of software to do all these tasks. That in turn creates unbelievable demand for people who can create software - and that's why those people are wealthy. 

And it's not just programmers or engineers who are cashing in. People who are collaboratively part of a controlled business process by which good software is made for ordinary people are also involved. These people have titles like Designer, or Product Manager, or Producer. 

The software industry is special in historical terms. Generally, there is no prior point in history at which one could freely join the economic upper class of the world's most civilized societies, without regard for birth, using knowledge that is freely available on a black mirror anywhere in the world. In the past, you had to be born into the correct social class, or have the ability to attend a university (which was a tall order in most of the world for centuries prior to the late 20th century) to gain expensive knowledge, or be able to behaviorally signal identification with the upper class (which meant your family sent you to the Ivy League). 

The software industry is also special because it leads the way with regard to changing work practices. The software industry invents tools and is summarily the first to put them to use (Slack, for example). If the software hipsters are doing something right now, it's on the bleeding edge and you'll see early-adopter companies get involved in a few years. In recent years, distributed companies (made entirely of remote workers) come to mind.

Speaking of...

Remote work will be OK.

The pieces are already in place. All that remains is for work cultures to catch on.

Companies are finding it rational to pay less, accept workers' geographic constraints, and conduct business over email, Webex and Slack.

There are so many reasons why companies will pursue the trend:

  • Lowers real estate costs
  • Can pay workers less (market salary in virtually any other city is less than that of San Francisco or Seattle, and those savings are magnified when you take into account taxes on those wages, cheaper insurance costs, and so on)
  • Already plays more nicely with whatever flexibility employees want, whether maternity/paternity, elder care, child care, or something else
  • Might lower risk of sexual harassment incidents (I look forward to someone studying this)

Life will get better for workers thanks to better information.

It's not a Marxist revolution, but Glassdoor or a service like it will democratize knowledge on the workers' side. Workers will learn to avoid bad employers thanks to review info, and the labor market will increasingly behave like a market - that is, workers in demand will command good prices and bad ones will not. Aside from salaries, improved benefits such as health insurance and maternity/paternity leaves come to mind.

Inequality will worsen. Make sure you win.

The incentives are already established for some benefits, such as remote work or parental leave. However, there is nothing here that suggests a lean toward greater egalitarianism. 

"Good" workers will be more and more skilled. It's commonly said that a bachelor's degree will no longer be an entryway to a career, but a Master's degree is. In the future, a "good" worker will have some skillset, and some light MBA-like business knowledge, and a healthy sprinkling of technical/computer/software ability, regardless of the field. The extra knowledge will likely come in a new form, such as online learning courses, university certificate programs, or "nanodegrees." That's a heck of a skillset, and it's hard to obtain. 

Those people will command crazy high salaries, and the rest will founder in jobs with lesser advancement trajectories. The result, at scale, is higher inequality. 

It is highly unlikely that you individually can resist this trend.

Just Maybe...

Those things I feel pretty good about. Now let's engage in a little speculation. These things are each somewhat less likely. With my favorite UCSD grad school era vocabulary word stochasticity in mind, some of these things will happen:

You will be surveilled at work.

Alexa devices will be around every office and every meeting room, probably as soon as Amazon announces a super-easy way to project your screen and/or connect to conference calls. Using office phones, or company-paid cell phones, will result in all communications logged, including audio calls. You'll be able to be "fingerprinted," even when you think you can't. Microphones picking up your voice will feed into AI systems that can recognize your voice uniquely. Facial recognition, integrated into all your devices, will be the norm, so your device will know without a doubt it's you. (So will your usage logs, and the law..)

This will probably come into wide usage by a combination of user convenience, IT admin convenience, and publicized corporate scandal. The surveillance will keep your corporate behavior in check - say, don't start any Office Space-esque schemes to embezzle - and it may also muzzle other behaviors resulting in out-of-office friend-making, dating, or #MeToo material.

Companies that act in a mature fashion, who trust their workers, will use surveillance only in compliance cases. The vast majority of companies who act with less scruples will use technology to micromanage workers in dystopian fashion. This is already happening to Amazon warehouse pickers and other low-skilled workers. Surveillance cameras combined with facial recognition will replace the time card. Companies will also execute against that desire poorly - think of a simple keystroke logger deciding whether or not you are "productive" - with soul-crushing consequences.

In the long run, you'll have long stints at jobs.

"Job-hopping millennials" is not caused by millennials somehow being sensitive snowflakes. It's a response to the labor market. We had crappy jobs in the Recession with high incentive to leave, and the current job-hoppers in peak conditions making the rounds on Marketplace are not professionals like you. They're service industry and construction workers. 

In knowledge work, institutional knowledge (the knowledge that isn't trained, such as which people can actually get things done) carries high leverage. The value of this knowledge will comparatively increase as companies decrease their investments in training, and instead of investing in training, companies will be motivated to fear your departure. They'll choose to be incentivized by the fear of your departure, not the opportunity of training, and will spend more on your quality of life after you prove yourself.

The greatest new ideas will continue to come from the US.

For the US's many, many, many faults - this country invented the Internet, invented the smartphone, and invented every great service that runs on top of them. As long as the US culturally teaches the value of questioning what is taught, and other countries fail to do so, it will continue to have the best ideas and capture the most value.

...but the Chinese will censor you anyway.

This one has lower odds, but fittingly a higher impact if it happens. The possibility is that you, as a worker at a Western company, may have to pay attention to what offends the Chinese government, and may either self-censor or be censored.

The most direct possibility is that Chinese ownership of international companies will continue to expand, those executives will be controlled by the Party, and the executives' control will mean that things which are offensive to the Party in mainland China will also not happen overseas.

I'll remind the UCSD audience that on-campus students produced a lot of noise about the Dalai Lama as a commencement speaker.

There are indirect possibilities, which are embodied by the game publisher Ubisoft. They have been producing two versions of a popular game, one Western and one, slightly modified, that would pass muster with Chinese censors. They announced that they'd make the Chinese version universal, so as to simplify their work. In this case, the Chinese government didn't exercise explicit control, but rather a Western company made a rational business decision that had a side effect of giving the Chinese government veto power over a game played by people outside China.

That was the first, and Ubisoft rolled it back after an outcry, but that very possibly the future as more companies begin to have exposure to a Chinese customer base.

The US is generally hands-off about business, but it is an extremely xenophobic country, and is likely to pass regulations that would protect companies from Chinese political influence. But given the economic power that comes with 20% of the world's population and tight control, this may be a point of strategic conflict played out over a long time.

------

I'm giving this talk in about a month and excited to hear your thoughts. 

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1357085 2019-01-13T02:16:54Z 2019-01-13T04:53:10Z In Praise Of...
What's good? This stuff is.

Retreating into books

Nobody needs an excuse these days to step away from The News, whether you're getting it from TV, radio/podcasts, or print. 

Books, you guys. The ideas are fresh and you can dig more deeply into them. Shopping for them has never been easier. Depending on your subject matter of choice, the act of reading is likely much better for one's blood pressure.

I've started accumulating a backlog of stuff to read, as if a backlog of games wasn't enough. 

Speaking of books:

Nike

Nike seems to be on a tear lately, and it might be more than just the goodwill generated by the excellent Shoe Dog (the memoir of founder Phil Knight). 

It is, however, my book of the year. The quotes from the covers are all accurate - Phil is an excellent storyteller and writer. Imagine something akin to the glorious business insanity of The Social Network, but remove Silicon Valley and tech entirely and set it in a sleepy 1970s American town prior to globalization and the internet. On every occasion I picked it up, I wanted to stay up all night to keep reading.

As someone who frequently thinks of entrepreneurship, I find an easy sympathy for Knight and his business adventure. 

A coworker with an unparalleled eye for detail was quick to criticize for leaving out Knight's entire dark side, which is alleged in University of Nike. It's real. The book effectively ends at Nike's 1979 IPO and only gives a tiny epilogue to cover the events of the 21st century, which is where the controversy lives. The sweatshop controversy gets a defiant (but ultimately passing) mention, but the book doesn't acknowledge the existence of any of the allegations about the University of Oregon and Nike's veto power in many areas, including academics and research, as well as a nearly House of Cards-esque power play over specific administrators' personal lives.

I think these things can exist in parallel and I give the book a pass. If you're writing a memoir, wouldn't you leave out your misdeeds and worst moments? If you're an American president, do you leave in the things that could be seen as war crimes? Are you obliged to tell the whole truth? I'd much rather read Shoe Dog than OJ Simpson's If I Did It

If Walter Isaacson was writing a biography, this critique would be entirely on point. But no, this is Knight's memoir, written in first person. (And it's pedantic to make the point, but Knight doesn't quite fit into the league of people who Isaacson covers.)

The book goes a long way to try to describe the Nike ethos, which is centered on athletics but in a way that's accessible to all. Nike's apps are living that ethos and the results can be really great.

The Running Club app is a great companion for runners, and has been for years. They were perhaps the first to put tech into running, beginning with the Nike+ chip and iPod connection back in 2006. As soon as the iPhone got location tracking, the app made use of it for maximum precision in distance tracking. And lately, Guided Runs (with a spoken word soundtrack over your run) seem like the latest killer feature. The latest ones sound more like coaching, which is super welcome. Even though I've been a minor runner for over 10 years, this audio coaching helped me shift my mindset and find new enjoyment in running, even as I age and slow down.

The Training Club app is similarly hitting new heights and is a mainstay on my phone. The simplest parallel I can think of is Beachbody, best known for the P90X workouts. Except where Beachbody charges $15/mo for a subscription to a premium product, Training Club has roughly comparable workouts and is free, instead making Nike products and e-commerce first-class citizens in the app to make money. 

Both apps have excellent integrations with Apple Health, for you iPhone folk, and the workout times and calorie burns are piped in for tracking in MyFitnessPal and other apps. 

Interestingly, in Japan specifically, multiple friends of mine have gone to work for Nike. Any Japanese company can push out ambitious and smart people, especially foreigners. I wonder what Nike Japan's pull factors are.

The Game Awards

The Game Awards, an awards show for video games modeled on the Oscars*, finally came into its own in 2018 and felt like a big-boy event. The event was well-produced, with much less of the cheese factor of years past. 

Quoting an interview with the maestro Geoff Keighley:
I love the freedom of being on digital. In many ways, our show looks better on digital - we're live in 4K on YouTube, which you can't even get on traditional television. We're on the new TV; most gamers around the world, they watch the show on their 85" television through Twitch or YouTube. It's the same experience, it's just not through traditional TV.
In short, it's no longer "modeled on the Oscars." It is the Oscars, but for our field, and delivered our way.

You can still go back and watch the show for free. I might have to host a watch party in 2019!]]>
Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1344953 2018-11-18T04:49:24Z 2018-11-18T04:51:38Z Tesla and Sheer Power of Will
I'm getting a Tesla. 

Two reasons why:

One
I feel morally compelled to, given that climate change is taking the Unbelievably Bad trajectory - it's worse than most worse-case-scenario projections. Record-breaking summer heat worldwide and record-breakingly fierce tropical storms worldwide should be enough to convince everyone. Even places that genuinely try hard, like California, experience Beijing-like pollution due to severely dried air, due to global warming.

This post isn't about that. If you know me well enough to read my blog, you're probably already on board.

Two
Tesla disrupted everyone. I came to write that. This bit flipped in my head one recent morning and had me planning a purchase for the last couple weeks.

Friends who talk cars with me know that I've been an obsessive BMW fan for years. But Tesla's world makes BMW's look dumb. As I recently wrote to my friend Robert:

The Tesla screens embarrass BMW’s iDrive. Why is Spotify support part of a $3k package? Why should I be satisfied with a 10% improvement in MPG? Why is maintenance $2k a year after a short warranty period? Why do I need suspension and cooling totally redone after 60k miles? Why is quality of life only improved once every 7 years on a generation change? Why has nobody made *any* progress on Autopilot? Why should I indulge in BMW’s fan culture of collecting old cars and pouring unreasonable amounts of money to keeping them running? 

Tesla's cars are flawed. I don't care at all about the debate surrounding its stock, but there are clearly valid criticisms of the product.

Quality
The quality-issues are well-documented - perhaps at their most representative, while journalistically verified, in this NYT piece. The oft-quoted "manufacturing hell" turned to "delivery hell" because it turns out that the car business is a complicated logistics machine. Let's be honest - manufacturing hell isn't finished, either; it's just turned to quality hell. A Model 3 I test drove had a clear issue with wind noise. Owners (or would-be owners) with paint issues abound. 

But there's precedent for improvement in quality. The first cars that were exported from Japan were laughing stocks on wheels. Quality was terrible, as is every country's or every manufacturer's when it first starts. Japan learned and improved its quality, to the point that the Japanese word kaizen (continuous improvement) is taught in business schools worldwide. Moreover, Korea followed Japan on a path to quality. China may be at the start of that path now.

Also, we fail to notice that we're passively forgiving established manufacturers for their quality issues. Toyota, synonymous with quality itself, tarnished its image with stacks of dangerous recalls for its American-built cars, even Lexii. American and Korean cars frequently have wide panel gaps, a criticism the car guys level at Tesla all the time. For years, BMW has been notorious for electrical "gremlins" causing ambiguous issues - especially in the first year of production of any model. Anecdotally, my Mini - a BMW-designed-and-built car - had a panel fall off at speed

No car maker has flawless quality. We should talk in percentages, not black-and-white. Tesla is worse now, but improvement is learned.

Also, I have absolutely no idea how this bug can come to be, but it's hilarious.

Performance / "driver's car" status
Sporting performance is learned too. The Model 3 Performance's track mode seems to have figured it out, mostly by way of listening to a highly-qualified "user" (ie an accomplished test driver) and tweaking the software on the fly. 

Moving on..
Tesla learns the automotive industry's game more quickly than other manufacturers are learning Tesla's game. While Tesla has nixed the performance criticism and continues to work on its quality matters, nobody else has learned simple online ordering, straightforward trade-in offers by Blue Book value, documenting issues at delivery to be fixed at any time later for free, over-the-air software updates (even for bug fixes), Autopilot, or comprehensive charging networks. Or, with very limited exceptions, a 200+ mile EV powertrain. 

More concisely, Tesla is getting to its [BMW] M3 fighter way faster than BMW is getting to its Tesla fighter.

It's the automotive chapter of the famous essay / investment thesis, Software is Eating the World. (Side note: that essay has not aged well, but the central idea that a software-defined thing will disrupt its incumbents is pretty compelling.) 

Power of Will
Tesla didn't disrupt by software alone. Having a car company isn't easy. Employee accounts and Elon interviews both point to fanatical 100-hour weeks. This strikes me as one of those historically rare moments of intense, focused concentration by a handful of brilliant people. I think this was necessary, perhaps more than the software, to disrupt the auto industry.

An incomplete list of other things that came out of such effort:
  • Smartphones
  • Desktop computers
  • Jumbo jets?
  • The moon landing
  • (regrettably) The A-bomb
  • Some unknown quantity of scientific projects that I'm not savvy enough to know about. Gene sequencing? 

I think the single biggest disappointment that comes with 'adulthood' is finding out that the people who do that kind of work are few and far between. (And the proportion that have that talent but burn it on finance robs the world of yet still more greatness.)

Shoshin
Quoth Wikipedia:
"Shoshin (初心) is a word from Zen Buddhism meaning "beginner's mind." It refers to having an attitude of openness, eagerness, and lack of preconceptions when studying a subject, even when studying at an advanced level, just as a beginner would."

Here, have that in a chill beat to study to:

Tesla may be shoshin thinking applied to EVs. How else do you get to powering a two-ton luxury car with lots of little laptop batteries? If "delivery logistics hell" is shipping a few thousand cars to customers (remember, incumbent automakers ship millions per year), it at once screams "rookie mistake" but perhaps should also scream "rookie opportunity."
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1332893 2018-10-16T13:34:55Z 2018-10-16T13:37:52Z The Japans, They Are A-Changin' Just around 5 years ago, I ditched the Tokyo life to return home.

Now, after 3 years of returning as a work visitor, I've been repeatedly exposed to the neighborhood where I used to reside, from the other side.

Things are changing, and rapidly. For once, believe the Japanese government's hype: this place is globalizing rapidly.

It began with a trickle of things this corner of Tokyo didn't have before: hey, the neighborhood got good Mexican food! Craft beer, whaaaat! 

More tellingly, language support exploded. English is now pervasive on trains and menus, and Chinese started to pop up. I've seen precisely one sign for a Chinese language conversation school, which seems like Patient Zero for what will be an epidemic of interest in the language.

But the biggest sign of all - and one that has anecdotally exploded in 2018 specifically - is immigrants. For about the last year or so, observers such as The Economist saw small municipalities sneakily grant visas to foreign students to try to combat depopulation. But in the last few days the government has embraced the idea at the national level and announced new visa types for workers, especially in sub-white-collar careers such as construction. They've given in to the inevitable - if they don't want to shrink as a populace, they have to let in foreigners. I'm sure many tongues were bitten in Tokyo's halls of power.

As I walk around Shinagawa, a Tokyo ward slash locus of Japanese globalization that combines a transit hub, an IT cluster and a stack of tourist-friendly hotels, I see explosions in the things that are immediately visible, like Caucasian and South Asian salarymen - and audible, like Mandarin speakers. (They are so loud.) The legendary convenience stores are seemingly staffed by 0% Japanese. Restaurants already have large numbers of non-Japanese waitstaff. 

I'm sure I'm also failing to notice stacks of immigrant professionals who blend in well in both appearance and behavior, like the very well integrated Chinese, Korean, Mongolians and others I worked with when I lived here.

The immigration is good. Residing in Japan will become more accessible for it. The travel guide I wrote 10 years ago endorsed internet cafes as a place to check your Internet, because smartphone roaming was unfathomably expensive and prepaid SIM cards were illegal in Japan. (SIM cards are now airport mainstays, like the rest of the world.) Your waiter will understand your order if your Japanese isn't impeccable. Residential bureaucratic nonsense will be less painful as procedures are standardized, information is translated, and permanent residence becomes achievable for more. Mexican food will finally be edible. Smoking is on the decline and it's no longer inevitable that you come home reeking of ashtray. Working practices are finally being questioned. 

Friends of mine are moving to Japan to stay. Funny thing: lack of school shootings is a pull factor. 

That accessibility reveals that Tokyo is eminently livable. Housing is available. So is health care. With some exceptions, so is education. The income mark for 'a good life' is well lower than any other major world city.

The immigration will also ruin Japan. It'll get the same stuff as everywhere else: craft beer, Mexican food, Blue Bottle coffee, Tinder. What sets it apart? You no longer miss the creature comforts of home, but it gets harder to find the unique. If you chase authenticity, you'll have to go further and further off the beaten path. But expanding bullet train lines and government ministry initiatives to boost tourism nationwide, not just Tokyo/Osaka/Hiroshima, are working too well. I'll probably deal with lines at a museum 3 hours outside Tokyo next week. Kyoto is overrun with visitors to the point that policymakers are trying to address the problem by way of introducing peak pricing into tourist landmarks. Anecdotally, restaurants seem to struggle to keep up with running at full tilt all the time, which kills the magic of Legendary Magical Japanese Customer Service. 

It'll just be another rich city - another Singapore, another London. 

In 2008, you would really struggle in Japan without a local guide. In 2013, a guide merely enhanced your visit. In 2018, you simply don't need one - you can get a full, authentic experience, completely without assistance. By the Olympically imposing 2020, this place may be totally overblown. The travel guides that try to live on the bleeding edge - NYT Travel, Conde Nast, Monocle - will inevitably raise the question.

But thank goodness, there's still quirk. In a 7-11 I spotted what is probably beer-flavored sparkling water in the beer section. It branded itself as being good for, among other use cases, meetings. Without missing a beat, my dear friend Chloe remarked: 
I really like that America is like “we shouldn’t have beer at meetings” and then WeWork just went 🤷🏻‍♀️ and added kegs. Japan is like “we should develop a special set of beverages for this situation”
God bless this wacky, silly place.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1310493 2018-08-09T06:35:38Z 2018-08-09T06:35:38Z In praise of...
I had so much fun sharing stuff I like last time that I thought I'd keep it up! Here goes, enjoyable things to brighten dark days:

The Hitman reboot
Whilst in a YouTube rabbit hole on game design (more below), I learned that the 2016 Hitman reboot looked super duper fun. So I bought it, and boy oh boy is it paying off. It's a funky concept - it has 6 levels, which are designed to be replayed a dozen-plus times. It's supremely cleverly designed. On a recent visit, my brother and I dug deep into the game and really came to grips with 3 of those levels. My brother's picky about games - he needs a lot of depth and strategic options - and so he sticks to franchises he loves, like the Arkham franchise and Dishonored. In a single weekend, Hitman sunk its teeth deep into him. We're both in love with the hilarious possibilities for assassination and the butterfly effect of each action in the game. There's a "Hitman 2" (something like the 10th actual game in the Hitman franchise) coming this year, and we're both hype. 

The feather in its cap: it's the rare game that keeps me up past my bedtime. 

Game Design Videos on YouTube
In days past, if you had a deep curiosity about game design, it was hard to come across serious information about it. Print game magazines, fun though they were, never went deep enough. Occasionally, a book got published that might have some tantalizing details about the super-fun-sounding inner workings of game creation. Occasionally, Gamasutra (a game dev news site connected to the GDC conference) would publish something cool. (Side note: Virtually all of my senior thesis citations were to Gamasutra articles.)

Now, there's a wealth of fun stuff to dig into. GDC has a YouTube channel that posts older talks (say, from the previous year's show). It gives a great impression of what it's like to attend the good talks. Amateurs sometimes make great analysts, as is the case for Mark Brown's Game Maker's Toolkit. My favorite of them all is Extra Credits, and despite the silly voices and artwork is written by a professional game design consultant, James Portnow. (Side note: Most of my senior thesis citations of Gamasutra articles were written by Portnow.)

Evo
Evo, the fighting game tournament, is still the best thing in esports. It has the unpredictability and spectacle of March Madness, but condensed into a weekend. It has the most diverse, respectful, hype community out of large competitive game communities. While the rest of gaming struggles to contain toxicity, the fighting game community overwhelms its own members with its positivity.

Special shout out to fellow UT and Rakuten alum Doune2 for nearly taking out the eventual winner in pools! I did *not* think that I'd see up and coming esports players in my personal life in my 30s, but here we are. Looks like I'm a Tekken spectator now!

Cowboy Bebop
Still good. It occasionally airs on Adult Swim, even now. I try not to spend too much time indulging in pure nostalgia for its own sake, but if you need 20 minutes to reminisce, this show won't disappoint. 

A Cloud Guru
The time came to pick up some new skills - particularly, AWS. A Cloud Guru is actually making it easy to understand, and AWS is hard. I'll be transitioning my skillset to AWS over the next few weeks, thanks to these guys. 

I try to profess my love for online learning often. It's great for the students and great for the teachers. 

For teachers, it's great economics. Create the course once, then it sits there and makes money. You may occasionally create updates, but that's better than the college circuit where most live on food stamps and still work stupid hours, while delivering the same lectures again and again. (Not to mention the convenience factor of just having to do it once and update occasionally). 

For students, it's also great. It's convenient (take the course any hour of the day and at your own pace), doesn't create insane debt at $30/month, and is quicker to respond to what's needed in the workplace than universities or community colleges.*

*(Don't get me wrong - there is a place for a 4-year, liberal, classical university education. But not if it costs $200,000, doesn't teach people to think, leaves teachers in poverty, and creates people who ask if they can turn in double-spaced papers and if points are taken off for spelling mistakes. I have immense pride in being a Plan II graduate - I got way more out of my education than the average state-school sociology major.)

Part of the software technorati I follow on Twitter helpfully pointed out: In what other point in history could anyone learn the skills to land a 6-figure job within a year?* This is an incredible democratization of opportunity. 

*(Money doesn't buy happiness, but it can buy you out of stress and poor conditions. Again, at what other point in history?)

Friends, believe the hype. Online education has come. 
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1294877 2018-06-17T05:27:50Z 2018-06-17T05:28:56Z Spiral
It was 2016, and "2016 is the worst year ever" entered the zeitgeist. Between Trump's "election" and a slew of beloved celebrity deaths bringing further sad clouds over the news cycle, the intent was obvious.

2017 didn't improve the situation much.

But 2018's awfulness lives on a different scale, and here's why: it's underscored by violence.

Celebrity deaths are part of life, but the increase in school shootings means that innocent children die at a rate 100x of celebrities.

The epidemic of school shootings brings a chill effect to those of us who haven't had kids yet. How are you supposed to raise children in the United States? Do you simply wing it and send your kids in every day and hope for the best? Do you place your faith in armed security?* Does it help if you shift your finances to send the kid to a private school?**

(*Perhaps you shouldn't: the "good guy with a gun" never materializes during an incident. The armed guard at Parkland stayed outside, presumably rationally scared stiff. An colleague with military experience remarked that from a tactical perspective, a school shooting is a surprise attack, and you'd need to be SOCOM Tier 1 or Tier 2 to even have a chance in such a scenario. School teachers are... not of that qualification.)
(**My thoughts here are complicated. I went to a private school growing up. My friends' public school had more fights and more injuries. Still, mine received a bomb threat when I was young. No one's invincible.)

The chill effect suggests that school shootings aren't just depressing, sad, angering news that ruin your mood for a day. Worse, violence is often a response to other problems gone unsolved. Further bad news. The severity of the shooting epidemic will probably begin to affect life decisions - first for educated and highly mobile people, then on down to the less educated.

Back to celebrities. Anthony Bourdain rightly receives a lot of ink and pixels. The personal stories from other celebs, from chefs, and from random civilian fans are too many to encapsulate (a sign of a great man who perhaps was underestimated during his life). But let me highlight one tribute: a review of his trips to the Middle East

His episode on Iran, better than any other, drove home that life as a visitor on the ground can differ drastically from what's on TV. It helped me to the realization that every Persian I've ever known is a delightful person. Not merely good, with which we often connote the absence of badness, but good as a force of positivity. One who makes your life better when they're around. And that Middle Eastern food looks downright incredible.

I'll highlight another: that he matured into an uncompromising good guy. Quoth Helen Rosner for the New Yorker:
Bourdain was right there, for everyone, in equal measure. He remembered names. He took every question seriously. He was twenty minutes early to every appointment, to the minute. Every newspaper, every magazine, every Web site that asked got its Bourdain quotes—and good ones, too! Not pre-scripted pablum but potent missiles of cultural commentary—bombastic wisdom, grand pronouncements, eviscerations of celebrities, flagrantly named names.

But you can't ignore that this year's celebrity deaths are suicides. Violence, by a different name.

This piece doesn't end with a comforting platitude like a resolution to be a more relaxed, more genuine, more curious, more friendly person like Bourdain was. If he were writing an episode script out of his life's final chapter, it likely wouldn't end comfortably. 

It might even suddenly snap to black. 
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1263731 2018-03-21T03:21:10Z 2018-03-21T03:24:51Z In Praise Of...

I've wanted to write some good words about good things lately. Let me just toss them all into one post:

Sega

In my book, Sega was Best Publisher of 2017 and they aren't slowing down. Their decisions to embrace the geeks and embrace risk have led to a slew of Yakuza series releases, and to the brilliant, fan-made-with-love Sonic Mania. Both franchises get new releases sooner than later. Something ventured, something gained. Hats off.

Nintendo

My goodness, the Switch deserves every ounce of its rousing success. 

This device is delightful. It's everything the Wii U wanted to be, but the technology wasn't ready back in 2012. The portable-meets-home-console, hybrid form factor delivers. Don't let the pre-release Internet commentary let you think some nonsense like that the CPU is scaled back in portable form and it kills every game. 

It. Just. Works.

It's easy to be cynical about the release library - a bunch of Wii U re-releases and several-generations-old indie re-releases isn't the bleeding-edge of new releases one might expect. On the other hand, by the end of Year 2 the system will have had Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash Bros., and new tentpole releases for a new audience like Splatoon, all available, in what might be a Nintendo first. And hats off to the many indies re-releasing and finding even more success on the Switch. They all deserve the extra sales here too. 

That new Mario. It's joyous. It's the best since 64. Better than 3D Land, better than 3D World, and way better than the Galaxy entries. A few moments do shamelessly play the nostalgia card, sure, but those moments nearly brought me to tears from my lifelong love for the franchise. 

Mario or the new Zelda alone would be worth buying the system. But having a full library of games that work well in the hybrid form factorin year 1, is a remarkable achievement.

I use this system for everything - couch-bound hours of serious Mario, Stardew Valley in airplane mode, and super-easy portability to play Puyo Puyo Tetris with The Lady on the couch or take it to a friend's house. 

Looking with my Industry Glasses on, it's also delightful to see Nintendo apparently master what technical types would call the Agile process - we're a year post-release and Nintendo is still shipping individual features, one by one, according to priority. Just last week, Facebook Friend Finding shipped. Pretty clever, I'd say, and it's preventing them from the many many Wii U missteps in software.

The Switch doesn't feel like a quirky Nintendo take on a product that's a generation behind. It feels like Nintendo swung for the fences but executed a perfect unison of design, engineering, game dev, and 3rd party content acquisition. 

This system is one for the ages and it might even be one that changes the industry. Does Sony or MS need a hybrid portable now? 

Sony

It'd be weird if I left out my own employer, right? The exclusives coming out of Worldwide Studios are really on point lately. It seems like there used to be tiers of studios, some making AAA games and some making weirdo off-kilter stuff or Vita ports. I think we've reached the point where every studio has released, or will release, award contender titles. 

Marcus D - Retro'd 2

I'm a big Marcus D fan, that's known. 

His latest album, Retro'd 2, is one of his best works - 20 tracks of genuine love for games, expressed over a massive variety of styles.

No one track represents the entire album super well, because of the high stylistic variety. I recommend a listen (and a purchase!):

http://marcusd.net/album/retrod-2

Man oh man, is this thing made with love. Look at that cover art! This American dude has gone to Tokyo to reside to Live The Gaming Dream, and look at that cover that results. Marcus seated intently at a Japanese arcade cabinet. A cigar putting off rainbow-colored, pixel-shaped smoke. Presumably elder game-music-composer dude I can't identify, standing behind him and looking over his shoulder, as if he were a ghost looking in from the beyond. 

To say nothing of the source material: Mega Man. Out Run. Super Mario World. PilotWings. SimCity. Mischief Makers. Mystic Quest. Chrono Trigger.

And for the fans who bought physical, it gets delivered in a Super NES game box. 

Meeting (and Befriending) Your Heroes

Before Retro'd 2, I managed to catch a Marcus show (with Substantial) in London last March as part of a work trip (such luck!) and I had the great chance to really converse with Marcus (and the inimitable Funky DL)! I didn't sleep that night - way too exciting to meet some heroes and find that they're awesome and genuine people.

Marcus and I, to my surprise, bonded over the Yakuza series (thanks again, Sega!) and I told him I'd shout when I was next in Tokyo, where he resides.

I followed through, and so did Marcus! We've since met up a couple times and bonded over life as expat, games, music, and more. Picture perfect bromance, really.

Still, I was stunned to find myself listed in the Special Thanks in the Retro'd 2 official album booklet (in the shape and style of a Super NES instruction manual, naturally).

Baby's first Special Thanks mention! 

As I told Marcus, it was a big surprise and a bigger honor. 

Documenting Your Values

On further reflection, I couldn't think of a better place to unlock that achievement. I think Marcus's Retro'd project specifically signifies more than just fun video game tributes. It's the best of that genre, if you want to call it that, but it's building toward a cultural statement about the escapist power in the artistry of video games, the nostalgia toward the 16-bit era, the childhood spent in front of consoles and not TV shows, and those three elements' power to bring people together in this hyper-narrow area of interest.

Or is it that narrow? I want to compose a manifesto, not unlike the Holstee Manifesto:

But one that documents the culture exposed in Retro'd and unites its fanbase. I think there's a broader group of people who live this life and are going unconnected, and it's high time that the Internet (and the occasional PDF print-out taped to a wall) fixed that. 

If you can identify with this much, give me a shout. I'd love to hear your thoughts and your sentences and your values.

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1203299 2017-11-04T19:34:57Z 2018-08-09T05:09:55Z It All Came True

I've been meaning to write this post for over two years. It's about time I did it.


Ever since I first laid eyes on an NES around age 4, I've loved video games and they've been as natural to me as water to a fish.

Everyone who's come across me knows some version of this.

I was reminded this morning that I wrote papers in school - from 5th grade composition class all the way to an undergraduate senior thesis - showing love for games, their creators, their history, and their unique contributions to the future of art.

I'm reminded often that my (perhaps suboptimal) choice of college major was Japanese, out of a desire born around age 10 to learn the language of the place where the games came from. 

I tried to enter the games industry a few times and got chewed up and spat out. There was the editorial gig at Shacknews. There was the internship at Realtime Worlds (RIP). I almost found a way in via events staff at an E3. Each time culminated in disappointment and a dead end. Naturally, that got discouraging.

Despite the prior failures, I couldn't stop myself from continuing to try. It was just in my bones. I'd have an existential crisis for the rest of my life if I didn't make it into the world of video games and make it stick.

Quoting myself from 2010, after the collapse of Realtime Worlds:

I had a quick talk with my boss on the way out of town. He asked if, after this experience, I'd stay in the games industry. My answer: "Hell yes."

But each time I tried I sought hints or patterns about who got to keep their jobs. It seemed that business leadership kept their jobs, so I focused my grad school studies in management. Studios closed with a single failure - best to aim for publishers and platforms where portfolio offerings provide job security. Job listings looked for e-commerce experience. 

So, off to Japanese e-commerce I went. The intent all along was just to show e-commerce experience, though it'd provide for a good trade to work if the games industry would never work out. 

That move, despite a couple detours, proved correct. In Tokyo I established Japanese working experience for real, became established in analytics tools, and started to show signs of rapid development. 

As I started a job search in 2015 I mostly looked at e-commerce, but through a grad school alum there was an opening at Sony. I tossed in a resume, and - this is where luck was preparation meeting opportunity - the alum recognized me, knew there was an unlisted opening that was a perfect fit, and referred me to that. "That" was the analytics team at Sony Interactive Entertainment, where they used the same tool as the Japanese e-commerce company and needed a Japanese speaker who was comfortable in an informal US-based tech environment and knew gaming products inside and out. 

Once I was called a "unicorn" in my first-round interview, I knew things looked good. 

In spring of 2015 I relocated to San Diego, started at Sony, and entered a whirlwind of never-ending releases and new features. There's only been expansion - higher salaries, more PTO, more world travel, larger teams, more collaborations, more celebrations of new releases, more employees-only sales.

I work directly on the PS4 console, which is an amazing thing to say. I have a dev kit - the magical weird-looking console that has secret options and features. If I really want to nerd out, I have four dev kits - a classic PS4, a PS4 Pro, a Vita, and a PS TV (remember that thing?)

In short, I found just the thing: a secure job in the games industry, dealing with Japan all the time, having a meaningful impact on the actual product and platform. 

I know exactly when it sank in: E3 2016. I had been in the job for a year by this point and knew it was going to stick. At 31, I finally walked into the trade show I had read about since I was about 10. I've walked into dark and exciting games events before, but never into one so large, loud and well-produced that it was like walking into Video Game Disneyland. The floor's energy is itself energizing - you feel like you could forego sleep from now on and just soak in new games. It only gets better in evenings when you surround yourself with industry friends and their friends. I now have a friend crew that spans all 3 of Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. Those fascinating, smart, funny people had become a circle I belonged to. I have peers, and they're awesome. That signaled to me that I had made it into the industry for real.

If I could talk to my younger self, the only thing I'd need to say is: it all came true.


PS:

This job is an absolute joy. I pretty much never go to bed or wake up dreading work. I never have a case of the Mondays.

It turns out that you can identify with a company's mission/vision/values. Sony overall stands for respectful attitudes and R&D and engineering and experimentation. Even at a US-based subsidiary that's predominantly American in ways of working, the benefits of Japanese corporate paternalism show up with wonderfully generous health insurance, relocation, training and travel. After a year of this perfect storm of awesome I felt deep down that I really could spend the entire rest of my career with Sony. That's not to openly state a commitment, but rather to say that this good fit is so strong that there's no desire to hop anymore. 

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1189150 2017-09-06T04:30:09Z 2017-09-06T04:30:09Z Thanks, Destiny.

In a very Slumdog Millionaire kind of way, Destiny might have changed my life.

For all my talk about a lifelong love of video games, I spent the vast majority of that time and energy in shooters.

Over the last 20 years I've obsessed over 3 Quake games, 3 Halo games, and a smattering of others in between. I consistently made it my culture, whether it was high school spent "antisocially" making friends over IRC, or watching Red vs Blue with my Halo clanmates (who doubled as college roommates), turning the show's dialogue and our own badly executed plays into inside jokes.

But after about 2010 that all went quiet. 

While the industry obsessed over Facebook games and avoiding competing with Call of Duty, my beloved genre went into a major slump. I slumped with it.

2011, 2012 and 2013 were challenging. Years of failure and opportunities gone awry. I barely played any games during the time, either. Any time I tried shopping for them, there was nothing that grabbed me. Starting a game usually instantly led to a disinterest and a desire to do something else. I can't talk about causation and mild depression, but I can talk about correlation and mild depression. 

Destiny brought my love of games back to life. Other games have become the base of internet culture (see also: Overwatch), but the arrival of Destiny was like a violent gasp of air after finally surfacing from underwater. 

I started launched it only to see what my shiny new PS4 could do. You know when you get a new console, but you don't have any new games, so you go looking for demos, just anything to show off the system? 

The Destiny demo had no more obligation than that. But the demo may have been the only one ever to convert me from a skeptic to a buyer. And it did it after just two levels.

I had never seen an FPS level so stunning as the moon. The game went on to tantalizingly borrow elements of MMO design: inventories, upgrades, subclasses, elemental items, and gorgeous, epic level design.

And brought best-in-class FPS gameplay: fantastic, natural controls. Solid, predictable guns and satisfying sounds. A soundtrack worthy of thousands of hours of repeated listens. 

What a game. I'm sure there's some API out there that can tell me how long I spent in the game. But I happily came out of the slump. All those hours got all my brain chemicals back in their normal, happy balance. 

Destiny took me back from "almost non-gamer" to "PS4 is the center of my household." Had that not happened, I'm sure I wouldn't have paid attention when a job opening appeared at Sony PlayStation.

Bungie, you did me a solid. Thanks for an excellent game.

Today, Destiny 2 releases. And I'm online with my crew. This is going to be great.

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1170884 2017-07-08T22:28:04Z 2017-07-08T22:28:04Z 10 Years

I believe that the 10-year mark after a certain date is a weighty one. 

In my experience to date, almost all things cease to be relevant after 10 years. The ones that remain just might remain for life.

I hold up many things to this bar, but I contemplate most:

  • Music
  • Life experiences

Music

Maybe it's just a pattern of aging, but I can't enjoy most music from my collection after 10 years. I can't still habitually listen to the Blink-182 or Incubus from my high school life, or the Jimmy Eat World and Paul Oakenfold from college, or the J-pop from the very end of college after my Japanese major was a fait accompli. Trying to listen now just undermines my previous love for it. Lyrics get picked apart and revealed to make no sense. Melodies wear thin. Heartbreaks dull.

The 10-year mark for dropping music isn't sudden, like the flip of a switch. It's more like a cliff, where interest falls off very slowly after 1 year but drops off dramatically in years 8, 9, and 10. 

But a few outliers have survived past the 10-year mark and thrived. (If you were wondering, the loungey wonders Supreme Beings of Leisure and the Middle East-inspired downtempo geniuses Dzihan & Kamien are going strong after 15-ish years.)

What is it about those artists and albums? Is it better music? Is it lighter and more accessible? Or is it deeper? Is it tied to particularly strong or pleasant memories? Does music change more rapidly today thanks to technology?

Sometimes I come near the 10-year mark and fear that I'm about to stop liking music that I managed to hold on to for that long. The Samurai Champloo soundtrack, which was deeply influential as I finished my college Japanese studies, suddenly got a little stale last year and it made me uncomfortable: I never want to forget the optimism and infatuation with which I dove into Japanese culture in college, and I tightly associate Champloo with that chapter.

Life experiences

10 years seems to be enough to separate me from most life experiences - then again, I was just 22 at the time.

That's a significant age for a typical 4-year college student, since 22 marks graduation and transition on to new things. So for me, it's been a flood of former milestones, thanks to Facebook Memories keeping track of the exact dates.

College itself feels like a remote memory. I'm no longer drawn to Austin, no longer spellbound by the UT Austin campus or looking to relive my frequent drives through the western hills. My core friendships have survived, and thanks to that there are new memories with the same folks to keep the nostalgia fountain flowing. 

Likewise, my time in Spain was transformational at the time, but I haven't kept up my Spanish and I've never been back to the country. 

The anniversary that actually inspired this post was my departure to Japan for the first time, which had crossed 10 years in late December 2016. The trip was a magical three weeks of nothing but exploration. That trip began my love affair with Tokyo and it hasn't ended. It may be rough to work in Tokyo, but it's hands-down my favorite place in the world to play.

Speaking of playing in Tokyo: I'll never forget catching up with college friends in the middle of Tokyo during that trip. Not only was it comfortingly familiar to mix old friends and a crazy new place, but it added even more excitement to have their experience and knowledge to guide me around busy places like Shibuya and Shinjuku for the first time. 

On the other hand, as I write now, I'm days away from the 10-year anniversary of leaving for rural Japan on the JET program. That memory is only receding. In retrospect, it was a sad and overwhelmingly lonely time. 

Still, with a job working for Sony, and with both business and pleasure travel to Japan in my upcoming calendar, it's safe to say that the country overall survived crossing the 10-year threshold. 

From my life right now, what will survive its 10-year anniversary?

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1132967 2017-02-21T07:22:24Z 2017-02-21T07:22:25Z Musivu: The Postmortem
Today, we say goodbye to Musivu.

This post is much more in the startup tradition of analyzing where things went right and wrong, for anyone who might be interested. There is some business discussion, but it's primarily technical in nature.

I wrote a much more personal note about this, as well. If that's more your speed, you might want to read that.

My time on Musivu comes with 5 main lessons:

1. Education really does suck
The primary cause of death for Musivu was the education market. The always-intelligent Patrick McKenzie frequently discourages would-be entrepreneurs from going into the education market. He is correct.

Whether you sell to students, parents, or teachers, you are always selling to someone who is strapped for cash and, on average, a low level of technical sophistication. 

Our best customers were those who were none of the above: they were adult hobbyists or retirees who wanted to get back in touch with music. 

Going after teachers was a terrible idea and a particularly lethal trap for our attention. Teachers loved the idea of the site, and they loved Kris's ability to speak to the educational benefits of assigning video lectures and using class time for discussion and time on the piano. The catch: none (OK, literally one) had the wherewithal to formally assign us. "The deal" always died at some administrative level above the teacher. 

2. Test an idea with minimal building and maximal audience size
Does your idea have any audience?

This is why Microconf speakers frequently talk about starting an idea as a Wordpress plugin or as an add-on in an established ecosystem such as Salesforce or Shopify. 

One of the things we did very right was to test by putting a course on Udemy to test the waters. They had a captive audience, a Music section just getting off the ground, and a need for high-quality music content. 

Our early Udemy revenue was so substantial that it funded our early development of our first subscription site, as well as our most ambitious marketing moves that we'd ever undertake. (This was a fluke with early Udemy circa early 2013 - this is now highly unlikely under their model in use since 2014.)

3. Large video libraries are hard to do well (now that the bar for video is ever higher)
Content libraries have certain advantages. As Jason Cohen put it in 2013, a content site can be "done" and then be left to run on autopilot.

Our content was video, and video is tricky to do on the cheap. Musivu came up at the same time that YouTube morphed from "video depository" to "cultural phenomenon" and the bar for good video went from a webcam to rigs more in common with professional setups.

The differences in lighting between our first and last videos were telling, especially in terms of resolution and lighting. But we never went to the trouble to reshoot our earliest videos, despite those having the widest audiences. 

This probably kept our visit-to-trial and trial-to-paid conversion rates lower than potential.

Another thing left undone was to hire a video consultant to help us establish solid technique for videos that would last a few years without looking dated. For a typical online teacher who does one course lasting about 5 hours, a reshoot is feasible in terms of schedule and workload. For us, the video library spanned a couple hundred hours of finished footage - much harder to reshoot, edit and upload. 

4. Your feature set probably exists in the Wordpress / WooCommerce ecosystem
Our first home-grown subscription site (we called it Subscription 1.0) was a hand-written Rails app where the paywall just barely worked, then served up a static page with the link to each lesson, and a simple view for each video in sequence.

This was a wonderfully simple system - our server bill was $7 for the smallest persistent Heroku instance. 

But once Kris and I agreed that "classes" and "quizzes" and "scoring" needed to be among the feature set, it was time to re-examine our architecture. It turned out that the technology we wanted was a Learning Management System, or LMS. In 2014, this was not exactly well fleshed out in the Rails ecosystem.

I had gotten 1.0 shipped on my own, but didn't have the programming skill to write a LMS. Speccing this out and hiring out our external engineer David to handle it would have been extremely costly - following my back of the envelope calculation, thousands of dollars. More than we could realistically spend.

Amazingly, the feature was done over in Wordpress world, in the form of Sensei, and cost a mere $130. The great thing about WooCommerce plugins is that they're insane value for money. All in for plugins, we spent less than $500 a year on software and never had to hire a custom coder. 

The Hacker News crowd might mock the Wordpress ecosystem, but very, very few small software startups need the performance differential between Node.JS and a well-run Wordpress site on a CDN. Wordpress is "slow" compared to the modern software frameworks, but guess how many customers ever called our site slow? 

5. Spend to Alleviate Stress
After discovering Sensei for our LMS purposes, it was almost inevitable that we'd migrate to Wordpress. This would become Subscription 2.0.

It turns out, there is one correct way to run a Wordpress site that collects money. 

There are many incorrect ways:
  • Trying to run Wordpress on Heroku: Sounds clever, is a nightmare. Wordpress's heavy reliance on a local filesystem will never play nice with Heroku.
  • "Shared" hosting (eg anything costing $1-$10 a month): These are vulnerable servers with unpredictable performance and security. You will be a common tenant with hardware running Estonian fake news sites. Do not put a moneymaking venture on such hosting.
  • Running on a container: AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Digital Ocean all offer Wordpress images that spin up instantly for $5 a month. This is a tempting offer, but you'll be left holding the bag for bandwidth, security, sysops failures, DNS, SSL, and a number of other things that can very economically be passed on to others. 
Here is the correct way:
  • Use a managed host. We paid Flywheel $15/month for managed hosting with dope support, and had all the aforementioned issues just handled. $15 even included SSL at the end, there. Easiest spending decision I ever made. Compared to a $5 container, the marginal $10 removed a whole lot of potential stressors.
In a similar vein, technically serving up video was a challenging set of lessons for me to learn. Wistia solved them all:
  • Piracy protection: Turns out it's not easy to remove the ability to right click > Save As on your video behind the paywall
  • Responsive web design: Turns out it's not easy to have a player that's always the right size
  • Dynamic quality switching: Turns out this requires identical, separate videos of different quality levels
  • Transcode: To serve the above, we need one baseline video converted into all those separate quality levels
  • iOS playback: Turns out Apple has quirks here and demands their own special snowflake streaming video format
The less-than-retail price we paid for Wistia smoothly, beautifully and permanently fixed a problem in a space where even the big boys of cloud computing aren't playing. 

Big List of Thanks 
These guys made it all possible and earned every penny.
  • WooCommerce for putting a stable, flexible, fully-featured e-commerce system in the hands of anyone who can run Wordpress. Automattic wisely acquired these guys during Musivu's life, and I genuinely hope to make a dent in this world someday. It has potential to liberate small business creators all over the world. 
  • Wistia, for making video work as it should: Upload a file, embed a code, and it works on every device, with metrics and piracy resistance. 
  • Flywheel, for taking the genius of high-level managed Wordpress hosting (think WP Engine) and doing it at half the price, with amazing support. Never mind their "for designers" marketing bent - these guys just have solid hosting.
  • RailsApps, for the core of Musivu Subscription 1.0 and the lessons to get a Rails site out in production. 

Big List of Things Blake Learned While Doing This
Many of these things I now explain to my subordinates. 
  • Git, Github
  • Stripe
  • Languages: Ruby on Rails, PHP
  • Wordpress, plugins and The Wordpress Loop
  • WooCommerce
  • SSL
  • Analytics: tag containers, Mixpanel
  • Infrastructure: Heroku, Amazon S3, Cloudfront, AWS in general
  • Time-savers: Managed WP hosting, Wistia for video
  • Practice: Staging environments
  • Web technologies: Bootstrap, templating systems
^ That is to say, if you have an idea for a thing you want to try, you can go try it and wind up with the toolkit of an entrepreneur, or a software engineer. I have no formal engineering training, but my formal title at Sony is currently Software Engineer. And it comes with Software Engineer compensation. 

The learning was challenging, and the introverted nature of tech work even messed with my psychology at times. But I look forward to the next opportunity to learn more while building something.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1132932 2017-02-21T04:58:37Z 2024-02-09T20:51:51Z The End of Musivu
It's a bittersweet announcement: Kris and I are ending Musivu, the online music school we started on in late 2012. 

I'll do a separate post with the techie/startup-oriented postmortem, but most importantly this was a terrific journey with my brother.
(Edit: The tech postmortem is now up.)

We each started this from a place of frustration. We each found ourselves angry with the organizations for which we worked and craving independence. And of course, more income.

In 2012 I was soaking up the collective works of the Y Combinator community, learning all I could about startups and better ways of doing business, while working a day job effectively in a website factory.

With perfect timing, Kris called me on Skype one weekend and basically asked "I wanna teach music online... how can I do that? Can you help?"

It didn't take long for the light bulb to go off and for us to test the market. Our  first course went on Udemy at the very end of 2012. It worked. We'd go on to acquire 2,000 users on Udemy, between our free and paid users there.

By early 2013 we incorporated, and by early 2014 we even had our own booth at one of the biggest music education conventions in the USA.

2014 might have been our best year. We had cash from Udemy still coming in but we managed to launch our very own site, run moderately successful ad campaigns, acquire customers... it really felt like we were on the verge of greatness.

Greatness didn't happen, though. Subscriber numbers ebbed and flowed as Kris and I tried new approaches to keep cranking up the subscriber numbers. In the fat months we built the bank account, and the quiet months drained it. 

We never went broke and never had to add our personal funds back in. I never really thought about that until just now. I'm actually pretty proud of that. It proves that wealth can be created from nothing.

More importantly, Kris and I learned a ...wealth of stuff. 

He can state his own case in his own words, but to paraphrase our previous conversations, he got bitten by "the [entrepreneurial] bug". He's gone on to build the Q escape rooms and they're performing fantastically.

I learned a huge amount of technological knowledge. I could throw so many technical terms out here that it'd look like a software engineer's resume. I think it was that, just as much as my day job experience, that qualified me for what I do now at Sony.

It would be easy to be regretful about closing up Musivu. It's in human nature to stress a sense of loss. Plus, we still believe that there are more economical ways to teach music to anyone who wants to be a musician, and it's like an itch that will forever go unscratched to know that we didn't crack that nut.

But when we look at Musivu's entire circle of life, Kris and I got exactly what we wanted: independence. We got out of the systems that were eating our souls. 

And I had a great time chatting with my big bro, whether it was starting with the basics over a Skype connection in Tokyo, or talking about the future in paradise cities like San Diego or Fort Collins. Family business can indeed be a thing - but you need a great family to do it.

For me, it's much, much more sweet than bitter to be done with Musivu. It so clearly changed our lives for the better.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1057769 2016-05-31T04:08:40Z 2016-08-21T23:21:58Z Career Tip: Specialize!

Preface

My new year's resolution for 2016 is to be more giving. Five months in, it appears that the most help I've provided is to people on their job hunts. So I'm writing here to generalize the thoughts I give.

If you're someone I know and you and I are talking careers, I'm not writing this to replace the contact I have with you. I'm just hoping it helps more people, too.

This will be a short series of posts. I previously wrote about Supply and Demand, as a means of helping you frame your career management and negotiating jobs.

Don't Make My Mistake

Many students, myself included, came out of school wanting to show our flexibility. Somewhere along the way, we're invariably told that we can and should do anything. 

This is nonsense. Beginning in your schooling, your individual experiences will be distilled into a small number of short phrases that actually describe you.

In my case, the list of actual phrases read as follows, in 2011:

  • Japan expert / Speaks Japanese
  • Video game industry expertise
  • Business Analyst
  • Statistics

That was it. Sure, my resume showed other things, but my resume sucked back then. We'll cover that in an upcoming post.

These phrases describe what you can do, starting right now, as evidenced by exactly one of two things:

  • Existing work experience (this includes internships)
  • Academic credentials

And that's it. Anything else you may wish to use to apply for a job, such as an online course or a passionate desire to learn a subject, doesn't count.

Specialties Are These Short Phrases

Your particular combination of short phrases is your set of specialties. This set evolves over time, and like a bonsai tree, you can prune certain ones or let them grow.

I listed my specialties coming out of grad school, but that was 5 years ago. In 2013, my list looked like:

  • Japan expert / Speaks Japanese
  • Experience working in Tokyo
  • E-commerce industry experience
  • Adobe Certified Expert in Adobe Analytics

Compare the two lists, and you can pretty accurately guess what happened, even if you've never met me. The true story is that I met a Japanese e-commerce company, they liked a combination of 3 out of 4 of my specialties. 

They took a Japanese-speaking statistician with a business bent, and turned him into a Japanese-speaking analytics pro. I have to admit that the company's decision made a bit of sense.

Mix and Match

In 2015, the list evolved a little to look like:

  • Japan expert / Speaks Japanese
  • Adobe Certified Expert in Adobe Analytics
  • Experience in a consulting firm
  • Experience in e-commerce
  • Expertise in video games

By 2015, I began to pick among previous experiences and present the best combination of them to fit the job I wanted. Video games had been out of circulation for a few years, but it was perfectly OK to pull that back out. 

Be Rare

There are not too many people who have Adobe certification, speak fluent Japanese, and have US work authorization. This has worked in my favor.

Having a rare combination of specialties limits the number of companies who want you, but the ones who do will really want you. This results in higher salaries, better retention (i.e., raises), and a higher profile to leap from should you decide to move on. 

This Will Be Your Resume and Your Interviews

Your specialties will form the backbone of your next job application, and your resume will be a part of that. We'll do that next time.

We'll write a resume that shows momentum, and then use that to direct the conversation in interviews.

Thanks for reading. I'd like to hear what you think. Tweet me at @blakerson.

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1011280 2016-03-11T04:35:13Z 2016-08-21T23:22:01Z Anguish

I have never seen, before or again, anguish the way I saw it on my Japanese friends' faces when I came in to school on March 11 (US time). 

Those friends were exhausted from a night spent half a world away from their loved ones, wondering if each one was alive. They watched endlessly repeating footage of destruction, of explosions at Fukushima Daiichi, of explosions and fires on Tokyo Bay, of salarymen walking home without mass transit - if they were well off enough to live close enough to work to not need mass transit.

The apocalypse happened.

For some of them individually, the worst was yet to come. I don't remember who out of the crowd lost friends, if any. But as these friends largely worked for the Japanese government, it was their responsibility to clean up this mess.

"I can't grab a drink with you on spring break anymore," one told me, deflating my selfish and immature excitement to cheer him up. "I have to rewrite Japan's nuclear energy policy." 

He wasn't kidding. He was surrounded with textbooks detailing nuclear reactors as he said it.

Later, another would be habitually sent to the stricken prefectures to promote disaster-stricken regional sake. He was condemned to a life of alcohol and radiation amidst the wreckage - at least for the two year duration of the assignment.

And the one who had to rewrite nuclear policy? He later became the foot soldier of a ministry's mission of apology. He had to go to the same region, and on behalf of the government, apologize for its negligence. And absorb the brunt of the citizenry's anger. Japanese anger does exist - despite the constant refrains that the people are restrained, it's more of a bottling up of emotions. And when they burst, they explode.

Japan is known for its workers' perpetual exhaustion. It's one of the nuances of the word salaryman, which they invented. But salaryman exhaustion is nothing like this. Nobody works like the government workers in the best of times. And to top it all off they had the weight of a country on their shoulders.

All of this happened in a time when the plant's radiation output still wasn't well-understood. The best one could do was carry a smartphone app that sent a notification of a change in measured radiation, and give a jaded laugh at the gallows humor of a populace eating irradiated food.

Just as if the apocalypse had happened.

To see their faces 1, 2, maybe even 3 years after the disaster, the bags under their eyes were ingrained. 

But the expressions of sharp disbelief were no longer there.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/1006639 2016-03-07T05:41:22Z 2016-03-07T05:41:23Z Career Tip: In "Supply and Demand," Provide the Supply

Preface

My new year's resolution for 2016 is to be more giving. Two months in, it appears that the most help I've provided is to people on their job hunts. So I'm writing here to generalize the thoughts I give.

If you're someone I know and you and I are talking careers, I'm not writing this to replace the contact I have with you. I'm just hoping it helps more people, too.

This will be a short series of posts. This is the first one, and it's because I encourage you to have the correct mindset about your job search.

The default way of thinking about "getting a job" harms you.

When we're young, it seems like "getting a job" or "getting a job I like" is a destination we'll reach by using little more than luck and a resume free of typos. It's often characterized as an audition process. We talk about making it past the current round of interviews and into the next one. We're all but sitting by the phone, waiting for it to ring. 

I've learned that this is a toxic mindset. It harms your ability to get jobs, and the ones you do get will be lower quality for challenge, leadership, and compensation.

There is Supply and Demand. You provide the Supply, not Demand.

These two economic concepts are tightly related:

  1. Supply and Demand
  2. The Labor Market

The labor market, being one of many kinds of markets out there, is characterized by supply and demand. That's the definition of a market: a place where buyers (demand) and sellers (supply) come together to buy and sell.

Consider who's handing money to who in this transaction. Companies, which use money to buy your labor, are the demand. You, as an individual willing to sell your labor, are the supply.

You're the person with something to sell. So act like it.

The canonical document to reset your expectations of the labor market and hiring process is patio11 on Salary Negotiation. He writes to a technical audience but his understanding of companies applies to everyone. I'd strongly recommend reading his posts on labor no matter what. But here are the most relevant points to the immediate discussion, with the supposed company my invention, not his:
  • Most companies buy an unbelievable amount of labor. A company of 2,000 employees, averaging $150,000 of costs to them a year after salary, taxes and benefits, means the company spends $300 million a year on its employees. 
  • An extra $5-10k in your salary is a drop in a $300 million ocean.
  • Suppose the typical tenure at that company is 3 years. Using back-of-the-envelope math, that's 700 employees coming/going in a given year, which means two heads turn over every day counting Sundays. That's 10-15 hires (not interviews, but actual signed/sealed/delivered hires) a week just filling in gaps, before accounting for growth of the company. HR drones see the mundane routine of this hiring transaction, yawn, and to quote patio11, think "I wonder if the cafeteria has carrot cake today?"

In light of these figures, I think it's safe if we relieve ourselves of all the heart-pounding moments of interviews and calls and replace them with something a little more pragmatic and lower in blood pressure. And cold-blooded. We'll get to that process in additional posts, but while we're focused on the mindset...

If there's something you want, you have to find the right buyer for your skills

There are consequences to the new mindset that you're selling and the company is buying. Importantly, it stops you from believing a few falsehoods about your job search:

Falsehood #1: You can get that job in a highly competitive city if you just make it through the process.

I have too many friends who want to move to a cool city (take for example San Francisco) without taking into account what SF companies deal with.

Suppose you're a generic marketer. Companies in SF don't need to hire you and bring you out to SF. The area is already lousy with marketers. This is true for pretty much any role that isn't "software engineer from a top university." 

From the company's perspective, you are added expense and trouble. 

The expense is straightforward: those already in SF don't need relocation assistance. 

The trouble is because companies are risk-averse. If you were offered a job and relocated, then something went wrong during relocation or you bailed right around your start date, then not only is the company on the hook for some expense or liability, but then Mike the hiring manager and Sam over in HR have to explain to their managers why they chose you over the litany of local candidates for whom these things wouldn't have been an issue and wouldn't have cost the company 1-2 months of time in filling the gap on Mike's team.

Mike and Sam are aware of this. Why should they stick their necks out just because you like San Francisco's latest food trend?

It is possible to get a job in a city where you are not residing. It's also possible to get relocation assistance. But it requires that you not be generic. You have to be a specialist possessing skills which are needed in your field (or at a specific company) but are not already available on the local labor market. 

Falsehood #2: You can win a career shift on the back of your prior (unrelated) experience.

Suppose you're an artist by education and by career. You have a degree from a known university, specializing in graphic design, and you've worked in graphic design since graduation. You've had some exposure to websites, so you start applying to web engineering jobs. From the company's perspective, they fear you being a hanger-on, dragging down the productivity of existing engineers by requiring all kinds of hand-holding. Not to mention, there are probably engineers already applying to this job. It's possible to close this gap, but not immediately. I'll discuss how to do that in a later post.

Falsehood #3: Your desire for a company's [environment/perks/culture] mean you can work there.

We all have preferences in terms of working environment, company size, hours, travel, the balance of pay vs perks, team size, competitiveness, location, and many more things. And it's great to want those things. If we decide that one company is the right set of characteristics for us, that's great, but it means nothing until that's true and the company decides they want to buy your labor.

From the company's perspective, your desire means nothing (in the best case). The company's concern is filling in the hole left by Dave when he quit without warning, which makes Mike's life much more inconvenient since there is one person's work to be done. 

I previously mentioned the best case. I mean this. In the best, case your desire to work for a company is disregarded by the company. In less-than-best cases, less-than-scrupulous employers will use your desire against you in negotiation. Commonly this equates to lowball salaries, poor benefits, no relocation assistance, and other hallmarks of an employer that does not respect you as a skilled professional. I would encourage you to avoid these situations.

Don't be driven by demand

I believe that these falsehoods are driven by the mistaken belief that we're on the demand side, that we're choosing The One Job and then throwing ourselves at it. When we think of ourselves as the demand, and phrase things in terms of "I want ...", it drives us toward places where we can't sell our labor effectively. That ends up somewhere between unemployment, a lowball salary being accepted, or dissatisfaction on the job.

Coming soon

I'll write more posts about isolating your skills, creating a resume that shows momentum, and keeping interviews short and sweet without breaking a sweat.

I'd like to hear what you think. Tweet at me: @blakerson

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/920650 2015-10-22T02:46:15Z 2015-10-22T02:46:15Z The Future

The Future, as defined by Back to the Future, has come.

I wanted to write a great deal of thoughts. But this one post stood out above all the memes, pictures, and Christopher Lloyd + Michael J. Fox reunion stuff:

Happy ‪#‎BackToTheFuture‬ day, people(s). Cool as it was all going to be, keep in mind Doc & Marty had no internet. Great Scott!

--Bill Nye

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/872066 2015-08-09T17:27:57Z 2015-08-09T17:27:57Z I'm back! It's E3 2015! (Also, sorry I'm late!)

First, two necessary disclaimers:

  • It's noteworthy that I neglected to write about E3 here last year, so my most recent E3 post was from 2013. 2012-2014 proved to be an uncomfortable phase in life. Add to that my lack of interest in what was going on in gaming at the time. I'm happy to report that that's all changed and I was able to bring my characteristic interest, passion and predictions back for this year. More about this soon, but a big part of it was...
  • I'm now an employee of Sony working on the PlayStation Store, so I'm obliged to start with the comment that these opinions are my personal ones and not those of Sony the company. There's no secret/unreleased info here, and while it would be easy to call me biased, I plan to continue to call 'em as I see 'em. More after the run-down.
  • Bonus third disclaimer: I'm very late! This was a lot to work through. Sorry about that. 

1. The manufacturer and publisher pressers still rule the day.

These events are still by far the most efficient in terms of the game info delivery per unit of time ratio. 

There are a lot of red herrings, which I'll condense to a rule of thumb: what causes cheers and applause may not sell, and what sells may not cause cheers and applause. 

That said, I think we all like to take the overall temperature of a manufacturer/publisher by their overall quality and breadth of games shown, as well as the tenor of the event. (Also, it is still encouraged to get on the hype train for games you think you'll love.)

I'll take the manufacturers in chronological order:

Nintendo comes first, because I think their Nintendo World Championships event should count as their presser. The fanboys were assembled in the theater, there was a great show put on by all involved, and the appearances by Miyamoto-san and Reggie lit the place up. 

New IP and upcoming releases not only showed up, but they showed up in really interesting and creative ways. A new mecha-football game on 3DS was newly announced and a competition title at the same time. Super Mario Maker's use in the tournament shows its creative potential (and humor potential). A DLC announcement for Smash 4 was greatly performed, too.

Their true presser, a YouTube presentation, showed a relatively weak hand. New Zelda on 3DS appears to be the highlight. The new Star Fox finally showed up, and it is indeed Star Fox. I'll buy it and enjoy it. Seeing none of the new flagship Zelda for Wii U was a disappointment, but on the other hand after that game the Wii U console may well be a lame duck.

But Nintendo will be fine. More on them later.

Microsoft comes next, and they ... didn't seem to change much. I should lead with their strong suit: HoloLens may just be magical. The Minecraft demo looked really, really fantastic. 

Unfortunately, MS has a history of polished tech demos that don't live up to the magic. In 2010 I was pulled in by the magic of Kinect and the potential of Dance Central. It didn't work fantastically in actual living rooms, and the hardware was optional, so it sank. Two Ars Technica reports (here's the latest) lament a "startlingly small field of view" on HoloLens prototype devices. 

There was some stuff that one would think couldn't go wrong (but did). Oddly, MS led off with announcing backwards compatibility with the 360. This is a feature that only matters at launch, when the library is lacking and the previous generation is still going strong. 2 years in, the One and the PS4 are both mainstream consoles producing great games. Combine that with some weirdly couched language about discs and permissions and downloading, and one gets the impression that it's limited-release emulation, closer to Nintendo's Virtual Console than across the board back-compat. That's going to irritate gamers when the feature doesn't work for their game of choice. 

The Elite Controller looks great, I bet it feels great, and it's customizable... but it's retailing for $150? What? eSports types might spring for it, but that is a small audience.

Aside from that, their game content seemed hamstrung by a smaller first-party portfolio compared to Nintendo or Sony. The only memorable presentations were Halo 5 and Gears 4. And those were honestly lacking impressiveness.

In my experience, the Gears presentation wasn't visible. Everything was too dark. To Tycho at Penny Arcade, who has opinions on the franchise, it was less impressive for other reasons:

The demo of Gears of War 4 was, in my opinion, the only off note in the Microsoft press thing.  That’s not an indicator of a bad product or anything like that, there’s no way to know.  I’m saying that was a bad part to show and the whole thing just needs to bake.  Gears is, like Warmachine or Doctor Who, one of my things.  This means that I extend it some sympathy, because it does something uncommon, something I can’t get elsewhere.  Even then, with an optimal audience, I couldn’t find much to hold onto.

MS got to include some third-party and multiplatform stuff, like Square Enix's rebooted Tomb Raider and Ubisoft's The Division. The association with the Tomb Raider demo came off to me as MS trying to respond to the Uncharted franchise over in Sony's house, which is a system-seller unlike Tomb Raider. (That's a give-and-take thing: MS caught up and won in racing sims. Halo is still better than Killzone.) But the game is ultimately multiplatform and credit is due to Square Enix for making such an impressive-looking demo. 

MS needs to get called out for the only presser out of about 10 that was laden with buzzwords like "innovation," "scale" and "epic." They might have missed the memo about getting the core audience back with an E3 showing. 

Sony did much the same thing they did two years ago as well: respond with more games. Sony easily had a higher games-per-second ratio than the other guys.

But man oh man, did they play the announcement card well. (Yes, "they" - I'm in a separate subsidiary from Sony Computer Entertainment, oddly enough, and it's not like I was on the team that put this together anyway.) Starting the whole thing with The Last Guardian - a game assumed long gone - shook the audience awake. Later on they brought up Yu Suzuki to plug a Kickstarter campaign for Shenmue III - a game that was known to be long gone. 

And then... 

If The Last Guardian and Shenmue III were gaming treasures thought lost, then remaking Final Fantasy VII on the new generation of consoles is like the Holy Grail. (Full disclosure: it's multiplatform.) And the modern Japanese part of Square Enix can always find new ways to disappoint its fans (see: Final Fantasy after X; iPhone releases). But Sony's purchase of the timed exclusive means it gets announced by Sony and all the minds are blown in Sony's conference. 

If we still play the "Who won E3?" game based on the aforementioned temperature-taking, Sony won this year handily. 

2. Once and for all, here's the rule for PC gaming vs console gaming ups and downs.

A long, long time ago there was a column written by some gaming blogger that suggested that the best gaming to be had can be had on PC or on console, depending on the season. 

What it really comes down to is console lifecycles. If the console is in its peak of lifecycle (2-5 years in), that platform will have the best gaming experience possible. If you're at the end of a cycle and the start of a new one, the PC will have the best experience. 

That blogger was right, and it's surprising that the rest of the world hasn't caught on to that. 

PC is great for innovating gameplay ideas in indie development, business models, faster hardware, and now we're seeing that PC got to VR and AR first. The console will incorporate PC's ideas, polish them, and make them more available to all, but it'll have to wait until the next lifecycle to accomplish most of that.

So while it's cute that there was a "PC Gaming Day" with Day[9] hosting and a theater full of PC gaming fans, right now it's the console's turn to shine. The PC will continue to quietly develop new ideas and practices, and I bet in another 5 years the PC Gaming Day will be where it's at.

3. VR (and AR) is coming, but not yet.

The demos just all sound too rough around the edges. An internal Sony writeup from "our guy on the floor" stated as much, and he didn't spare Sony's own Morpheus tech from that review. 

4. Shooters are back. Thank goodness.

For several years, the only shooter game in town was Call of Duty, and we really needed to be saved from that series jumping the shark. While its presence at E3 is still massive (its sales justify that), shooters got a lot of love in the form of Destiny, The Division, Rainbow Six, Dishonored 2, Fallout 4, Doom, Deus Ex, Gears of War, Halo 5, Just Cause 3, and Ghost Recon among still more.

Shooters birthed PC gaming, online multiplayer, put Microsoft on the map, helped Activision stock reach great heights... I really can't imagine why they went away to begin with. But as someone who grew up with those series and their predecessors, I have to say I'm incredibly stoked for the next couple years.

5. Toy figurines are the new cash cow. Nintendo is saved.

For all the dithering we talk about when we talk about Nintendo and their content library on a system that isn't selling like gangbusters, the amiibo figurines are keeping the profits rolling in. This cash will more than suffice to keep them working on their next hardware.

6. We finally have meaningful facial expressions.

Tomb Raider and Uncharted both showed wonderful subtlety in facial expressions. We used to only have the power for very exaggerated facial gestures like a raised eyebrow (Uncharted's Drake used that for just about every sly unsurprised one-liner in the franchise). 

Grand Theft Auto, often the bar for quality in game production, only showed anger from its character animation.

Compare that to voice acting. It's been good in AAA games for over a decade. 

Those two games demoed this year signaled that visual acting will be a thing. That means digital actors, which in turn means we can take advantage of the subtlety of good Hollywood actors. The potential is there technically, but what about financially?

Games to watch!

-Deus Ex: Mankind Divided: After the recent DX game rebooted the franchise successfully, Eidos has no qualms about boasting the legacy of the older games. Personally, I'm super excited to see Eidos Montreal get another crack at this great IP after they constructed such a great world last time and improved upon their design mistakes with the Director's Cut. 

-Tomb Raider: Visually very strong, with a heavy Uncharted influence. Looks very promising. 

-Metal Gear Solid V: We already got a taste in the form of Ground Zeroes, but the finished product looks like it has potential to be gorgeous, deep, and oddly humorous in that most Kojima-ish of ways. Here's the 40-minute gameplay demo, if that's your thing. The game releases soon. It'll probably be a masterpiece.

-Super Mario Maker: Seriously, we've all wanted this for so long. I'm expecting some great stuff to surface.

-Star Fox Zero: New Star Fox! It looks like it's carrying on the tradition. We've had to wait long enough.

-Wattam - the new one from Katamari Damacy designer Keita Takahashi. This one appeared in very brief teaser form previously, but according to Warren Spector, it surprised and delighted him. Quoth Mr. Spector:

(Frankly, I worry that it’s so different, it might run into some commercial difficulties, but let’s hope for the best.) Wattam is a wonder. Soulful in a medium that’s often soulless… a work of childlike wonder… a real sense of discovery… and often laugh-out-loud funny. I just hope people get it. I’m not even going to describe the graphics or gameplay. I don’t have the words. Just trust me on this one…

I haven't seen any of the game in person myself but I definitely trust his judgment and I'll always keep an eye on anything Keita Takahashi does. 


And there we have it! Took quite a while to think through and write, but this year had a great E3 for games overall and for me personally. 

Next year: Will I finally get to see E3 in person?

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/855258 2015-05-13T05:07:56Z 2015-05-13T05:13:45Z Fixing Education With Games The Extra Credits EDU Steam Curators' List explains what I'd do if I were a teacher. 


Each game comes with:
  • Suggested topic (to which the game would be a complement)
  • Suggested minimum play time (eg, it takes 2+ hours to get it)
  • Suggested minimum fluency with playing games
  • A one-sentence lesson plan
A favorite example is for Papers, Please:
(skip to 1:46 to see Papers, Please)

And the curators' comment:  
"Social science. Psychology. Ethics. 1-2 hours. Easy. “A dystopian document thriller”. Use as context for discussing subjects like immigration or ethics."
Imagine you're teaching high school Social Studies and you assign that game to your kids. Their homework is ostensibly to go home and play a game, but it's really to go home and simulate having to make difficult choices of who to let into a country given a variety of realistic constraints. 

Imagine the debate that could follow from that. Kids would come in the next day informed from the real constraints they were given regarding criminal backgrounds, terrorism, trade, or labor economics, and then discuss their choices and why they made them. Beats the hell out of kids coming in the next day and parroting whatever sound bites they've heard on TV, or what they've heard their parents parroting from TV.

It's a shame that kids still have to write essays on AP tests that reference certain books or other creative works, but they wouldn't be able to cite these games and be taken seriously. If you're taking the AP European History exam, your essay rubric may expect mentions of the Age of Discovery and the Dutch East India Company - but if a student were to learn the intricacies of 15th century plundering economics from Anno 1404, they'd be punished on the same rubric. 

The curators' use of minimum time requirements are, I think, more clever than they appear. "Go play this game for about an hour minimum" is an interesting homework assignment, opens up the chance for kids to keep going if they want, and exposes every kid in the classroom to what we in the web/app world call user experience by trying out so many different interfaces and ways of accomplishing things. (I've always meant to write a post to the effect that hardcore gamers are the world's best UX experts.)

Likewise, doing this project via Steam curation group may also be more intelligent than the curators intended. First, the store links are right there, so students can click through to purchase, and teachers can worry less about students falling through the cracks by not going off to the bookstore to purchase. Second, Steam is getting better all the time about system requirements, general PC support, driver updates and the like, which means the average student can really access this stuff even if they're not part of the "PC Master Race" of uber-hardcore gamers. As a minor detail, it's also worthy to note that dedicated curation gives us details in a consistent format regarding play times, topics and the like. 

If I had kids this would be a wonderful way to bring bonding and school to the dinner table. Maybe the homework games wouldn't be at every American's dinner table, but they'd appear daily at mine. 
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/813435 2015-02-19T23:42:46Z 2015-02-19T23:42:47Z Gaming Writing is Extinct

This one's been sitting on my mind for a long time, but since the Penny Arcade guys started to touch upon the idea, it's about time I got it all out and laid it to rest:

Gaming writing, games "journalism," whatever you want to call it, is dead.

There's 3 things any gamer needs to know about gaming "journalism" and why it's doomed.

1. Gaming publications have always been controlled by publishing PR.
Gaming publications, dating back to the early 90s print mags, have existed to generate hype for games. The exchange was thus: media (print or web) needed advertisers and content, and publishers could provide both. Take a moment to consider the power dynamic that naturally emerges from an arrangement like that. Short version: publishers win.

If you prefer quantitative proof, consider Metacritic. They annually rank publishers by their aggregate Metacritic scores on all their releases. For 2014, on a 0-100 scale, the lowest average for a publisher is a 62. This is not an industry that delivers bad news. 

Writers who try to deliver bad news (ie that goes against publishers' interests) get pulled in to toe the party line, or fired. Occasionally this becomes public - a site will pull a negative review, publish a more positive one, fire the offending writer, commenters will air their rage, and life goes on. 

2. Games company PR got squeezed out by social media.
Now it's all direct-to-consumer. Publishers no longer have to go through the media, with their inconvenient print lead times or potential to distort the message.

This is great for gamers and publishers alike. Gamers can get their news and cultural fulfillment as they decide. Follow Hideo Kojima to get lots of teasers for his new work - plus see the glory of being Hideo Kojima as he travels the world and noshes on late night ramen. If you're a fan, it's way better than a once-in-five-years magazine profile and preview of the next Metal Gear Solid.

And you can do that for every single one of your gaming loves! You can surround yourself in a customized feed of gaming greatness. The only ads you have to put up with are the ones on Facebook or Twitter.

If you told us in 1995 we'd get digital news directly from every designer and publisher as it broke we'd have dropped our jaws in amazement at the potential to board a Hype Train that's perpetually in motion.

3. All other gaming content is being squeezed out by Reddit.
There's certainly something to be said for the other content that game out of the good game sites - the community stuff. I'll always be nostalgic for the turn-of-the-century PlanetQuake or the original stuff that came out of SomethingAwful and Shacknews forums. 

Nowadays, all of that stuff is originating at Reddit, and "gaming journalism" sites get it. Pretty much the entire world of content websites (not just gaming) is now repackaging high-ranking Reddit (or Hacker News) posts, adding a clickbait headline, and auto-posting to social media. 

The playbook is pretty limited, but it's infinitely exploitable. The most common form is this one:
  • Reddit post: Look what my gf made me! (link to imgur picture of a Portal cake)
  • Post ranks highly because a gamer has a gf + a cake + a Valve reference in the real world
  • Website posts one of these headlines: "Best Gamer Girlfriend Ever? You Decide" - "Would YOU Eat This Portal Cake Made by a Real Person?" - "The Cake ISN'T a Lie: It's Real, and It's Delicious" - "You Won't Believe What Valve Inspired in the Kitchen" 
Another common one is manufactured controversy, which Penny Arcade cheerfully calls out sites for. There's no shortage of feigned outrage on the Internet for PC ports lacking features, or console shooters having the wrong FOV settings, or apparently estimated time consumption in an artificially short session being too short. These things always blow over. Games with these controversies still hit their sales targets. 

This mindless content, if it can survive, doesn't require writers with encyclopedic knowledge of the games industry. Anyone can do that. Thus the gaming publications continue to close. Joystiq was demoted to a gaming section of Engadget recently; Polygon will be next.

You may wonder about reviews in this regime. YouTube and Twitch already fill the void. Individual streamers are already showing an unbelievable amount of footage from every game that comes out, and viewers even get to be choosy about the personalities they ride along with. 

So, what now?

My honest opinion on the decline of all this stuff: good riddance! Let's go have fun!

I'm super happy that I can tailor my gaming coverage to my very particular tastes. Aside from the prior Hideo Kojima example, I get a few Facebook posts a week from the Deus Ex people at Eidos. It'll undoubtedly be how I get my news when the next game is announced, but in the meantime it keeps the series fresh in my mind and that's welcome to me.

So, press, reading, and writing. In a sense, it's a blessing that games have become mainstream enough to pervade common culture. But I question whether I want to read it daily. I don't read any gaming subreddits. Personally, I want a gaming New Yorker, with intelligent longform stories. Imagine a 10,000-word profile on Miyamoto-san or Warren Spector right after Junction Point or Bobby Kotick[1]. But I strongly doubt that such a publication would be commercially viable. 

When intelligent work is viable in terms of audience dollars, the creators appear to lack the discipline to make it happen.  The closest we got was A Life Well Wasted, a podcast that ripped the style of This American Life and applied it to gaming stories. 6 episodes were recorded before the super-stoned-sounding host turned the site into a promo blog for his band. There's an equal argument to be made for Area 5's Outerlands, which was Kickstarted successfully, but it's so far behind schedule it's nearing vaporware status. 

Yet, despite all the drama, it's a great time to be a gamer. Every platform, from PC to PS4 to Wii U to 3DS, is going strong and showing potential for time to come. Prices are low. VR is around the corner. Moral of the story: read less, play more, discuss with your friends.







[1] Kotick actually has been profiled by the NYT and it's a great read: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/16/business/bobby-kotick-of-activision-drawing-praise-and-wrath.html?pagewanted=all
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/709235 2014-06-30T21:36:42Z 2014-06-30T21:36:43Z The Economy and The Future
Sam recently wrote that he's optimistic about the US economy. It's a fun position to take. I'll take the opposite side of the bet, and I'm bringing with me knowledge that Japan is actually an economic forbear to everything the US has experienced.

So, I'll take on Sam's points, one by one, and extrapolate where Japan implies we're actually going:

1. Real growth is low, and trending lower, and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Japan is on its third Lost Decade of zero growth. There, a real estate bubble burst that produced systemic shocks like permanently increased structural unemployment, underemployment of youth, and permanently flagging demand. 

The only exceptions to these times are fiscal or monetary stimulus. Japan has tried a lot of stimulation over the years and generally nothing worked - thus, there were no easy policy answers when the global financial crisis hit. There's finally been a change with Japan's most recent QE (monetary stimulus) on an unprecedented scale. With that and a foreign currency intervention (not an option to the USA), Japan's markets had a banner year in 2013. 

However, the jury's out on the effects - it's just too soon to tell. The bulls may win it when Japan gets away with structural reform, as The Economist predicted last week. Or the bears may win it when it triggers a sovereign debt crisis, as economists like Takatoshi Ito have predicted. Personally, I think both of these will happen on much smaller scales: some reforms will pass, most will fail, and Japan will be left with an ever-growing debt pile.

2. Government debt is high, and we will slowly boil like frogs as it grows ever higher
Remember the euro zone crisis? That feels so long ago in Internet Time, but it was really a serious sovereign debt crisis triggered when countries' debts exceeded 100% of GDP. 

Japan's debt is well over 200% of GDP and climbing. Reports from WSJ's Japan Real Time blog in 2013, citing Japan's Ministry of Finance, predicted 227% in spring 2014 and 250% to close out the year. 

It was thought that Japan could withstand a higher percentage thanks to a higher savings rate than the US and that Japanese retail investors pretty commonly buy Japanese domestic debt. Japan has finally issued a government bond that wasn't eagerly snapped up early this year.

But there doesn't seem to be consensus on the ceiling that triggers rapid inflation or a sovereign debt crisis. If there were, Japan would avoid that number like the plague.

3. Government spending is high and will remain so for as long as the US is a democracy
Government spending in the US is a function of demography. Entitlements are the bulk of the spending, and the two big entitlements are Social Security and Medicare. Both apply virtually only to senior citizens. 

Senior citizens are reliable voters, which means no legislator can cut into those entitlements. Demography means that we'll have more and more senior citizens, thus producing even more political pressure to preserve and even bolster entitlement benefits. 

There is no meaningful reform to entitlements that is consistent with modern electoral practice.

Japan is ahead of us on the demographic rollercoaster, and even with the benefit of cheaper health care they can't control their entitlements either. It doesn't help that pensions start at age 60 and Japan has one of the world's highest life expectancies.

4. Interest rates are low and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
This really goes hand-in-hand with point 1 - a Keynesian economist (and I do side with Keynes) would lower the interest rate to stoke any sort of activity. Japan hit zero a long, long time ago and already set a "target" of 2% inflation back when I was in school. Sound familiar?

Also: remember that Japanese government bond that didn't sell? It didn't trigger a panic or even the inflation that Japan openly wants. The American inflation bears might take note of that.

5. Personal savings rates are low and will trend toward zero as individuals' wages stay at or below subsistence levels.
The US's savings rate peaked above 10%, but the Japanese savings rate peaked at over 25% as the economy reached its advanced stages in the early 1980s. It stayed above 10% through the 90s and finally plummeted to low single digits at the start of the century, matching that of the US.

The US is just now seeing research coming out stating that those who come of age in recessions never catch up with other generations in earnings, basically creating a population cohort that is chronically unable to maintain the living standards of their predecessors or successors. 

Japan started that whole trend with its first Lost Generation in the 90s. Since then, Japan has added another Lost Generation or two and its Gini coefficient has crept upward. We've just unleashed our first Lost Generation on the world, laden with tens of thousands of dollars of debt and degrees in Sociology, and that generation will fail to earn and buy property, creating a further cycle of inequality linked to lower savings.

What will save us
Sam believes that technology and innovation will save us. Japan has created technology in the last three decades, and it hasn't exactly saved them. Countless innovations in miniaturization, optics, lasers, chemicals, textiles, and batteries have kept the country afloat without creating talk of a New Japan or a Japan That Saved Itself. 

Hybrid cars? Japan. Full HTTP over cellular connections? Japan. Nuclear power plants that can survive a 9.0 earthquake? Japan. (It was the apocalyptic tsunami that got it.)

Japan itself? Still not saved; still treading water at 200% debt-to-GDP, zero interest and zero growth; still obsessed with agriculture, and still attending status meetings 16 hours a day.

Japan's technology and innovation are actually interesting and significant in their impact. But even those aren't macro enough to change things enough to say Japan is Saved. 

What will? I think Sam's themes in his recent Request for Startups - energy, food-and-water, health care, education and improved productivity - fit the bill very well. Anything less stands to be mocked on Silicon Valley
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/700566 2014-06-05T15:45:44Z 2014-06-05T15:47:20Z It Gets Worse: An iPhone comparison between SoftBank and T-Mobile

As I write, the Internet is atwitter with merger talks between T-Mobile and Sprint.

In the last couple years, T-Mobile has grown rapidly and competed well by marketing itself as a consumer-friendly, scrappy underdog. It's worked well.

In the same time frame, Sprint was acquired by SoftBank, one of Japan's largest and most successful companies. It's also one of Japan's three mobile carriers (unlike the US's four) and led by Masayoshi Son, an outspoken CEO. Son now acts as the face of Sprint.

SoftBank is in both wired and wireless in Japan, so I thought I'd share some distinctions between those two, and with T-Mobile.

Wired Broadband

SoftBank does indeed get credit for bringing high-speed wired broadband to Japan. The introduction of the Internet to Japan was an awkward thing because NTT, once a state-owned phone monopoly, still charged obscene per-minute connection rates that chilled the development of the Internet back in the dial-up days. So there's not much of an apples-to-apples comparison with the US here.

SoftBank did indeed step in with low rates and blow the DSL market wide open. However, that only happened after Japan's government deemed NTT's copper to be a common resource and opened the lines to competition. Son simply saw the opportunity and capitalized.

Mobile

Japan effectively has 3 carriers nationwide: NTT DoCoMo, au, and SoftBank. 

Let me get the easy point out of the way: SoftBank is universally panned for the worst reception, the slowest LTE speeds, and the worst customer service. 

The difference between 3 carriers and 4 (as in the US) seems material: it's close enough to oligopoly to grab the attention of the FTC. This matters, and I'll quantify it by my own experience using an iPhone 5 in both countries, on the relevant carriers, in fall of last year. Pricing has not materially changed since then on either carrier.

iPhone 5 on SoftBank, Japan

Device: $0 up front
unlocked devices not allowed; all devices must be on 2-year contract
Lowest usable monthly bill baseline: $80 (White Plan for iPhone and unlimited data packets)
What's included: 7GB LTE data and no talk time
Talk minutes: 10 cents per minute

Total outlay in two years, if you never make calls: $1,920

After the contract, your device will not be unlocked. ETF is a constant $200 in the first year and $100 in the second year.

iPhone 5 on T-Mobile US

Device: $549 or more up front (example here is a current iPhone 5c, 16GB. I paid $649 when moving last year)
BYOD
Lowest usable monthly bill baseline: $30 (prepaid with automatic credit card billing)
What's included: 5GB LTE data and 100 minutes talk time
Talk minutes: 10 cents per minute

Total outlay in two years, if you almost never make calls: $1,269 (1/3rd cheaper)

No contract, no ETF.

The moral of the story

When Son-san talks to American audiences about wired broadband speeds, he may have a leg to stand on, but it's irrelevant to the transaction that's really at hand. SoftBank the mobile carrier implies Japanese precedents for slower speeds, higher prices, purposely incomprehensible plan structures, rigid contracts, and unhappy customers. 

That makes SoftBank a profitable and successful company in Japan. It doesn't get much better on other carriers because there are only two more and neither of them is interested in price competition.

Personally, I would expect the profitable and successful SoftBank, not the happy-sunshine-unicorns SoftBank, to take control of one of potentially 3 American mobile carriers.

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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/686794 2014-05-05T17:11:03Z 2014-05-05T17:11:04Z VR solves (and makes permanent) the Jaded Gamer Problem
 
I've wanted to write about gaming for a few months now. 

I largely fell out of love with it during my time in Japan. You're in the wrong time zone to play with friends. Oh, but your friends are all almost 30 so they stopped playing anyway. PC gaming is a thing among expats, but I only had space for a laptop and no time, inclination or cash to build a PC. Consoles can be hard to come by if you're anti-region-locking or were ever a Microsoft owner. And the games cost $70-80 at retail even long after release. 

No wonder all anyone over there plays are crappy Android social games or portables. They're the only things that make any sort of economic sense by American standards. A shame, too, since the broadband is blisteringly fast everywhere there. 

Upon my return to the States, surprisingly little changed. I've now rid myself of a PS3 and a 360 on separate occasions out of complete frustration with their hideous user experiences. I have two friends who play PC games and they play a game I'm not interested in. So, I'm left by myself with Nintendo machines that just turn on and play games. 

Ennui sets in. When was the last time a genre was invented? My latest fascination is the latest Mario Kart. Where's the Metal Gear Solid that invents new gameplay and makes me rush out to buy a PlayStation? Where's the Gran Turismo quality racing sim that satisfies nearly every part of my car fetish and forces me to get a PlayStation 2? Where's the Yakuza that makes me get a PS3 to enjoy 30 hours of truly unique story? Where's my second rebooted Deus Ex game that's soaked in style? 

And that's just gameplay itself, to say nothing of the great disconnect that exists in gaming communities. Reddit's r/gaming is a hellhole unless you are really into dudes whose girlfriends make them Portal cakes. Online chat systems are clinics in racism and ignorance from 10 year olds. Watching games socially has awesome potential, as the great Barcraft meets and modern eSports tournaments show, but most people are just watching Twitch by themselves most of the time.

This is the Jaded Gamer Problem. The novelty wears off permanently by age 30, and the gamer retires as his free time subsides. I was about ready to retire from gaming until I have a child of Minecraft-playing age. 

But then came the research.

Michael Abrash came out and revealed the results of a lot of VR research that had happened at Valve and Oculus. Abrash, by the way, is a name a certain group of gamers know well, as he was one of the two main guys behind the Quake engine.

His recent presentation is required reading, but here's the gist: we've figured out VR in a way that gives people visceral experiences. We can instill fear of heights in a completely virtual environment that can even look unrealistic or fictional. The technical requirements are X, Y, and Z. (Note that nobody had disclosed the X/Y/Z before.) We'll see consumer-grade hardware that meets the technical requirements in roughly two years, and software is in the works.

That created a lot of believers very quickly, myself included. I, for one, was sold on the visceral aspect. Imagine playing Assassin's Creed with a fear of heights. Or Portal. Or Shadow of the Colossus and seeing just how huge the Colossi are. Or simulating Le Mans in Gran Turismo. Or hang gliding in a new Pilotwings. Everyone has a dream scenario, and suddenly it's in reach. 

That is the game-changer. Any gamer will endure whatever interface is attached to VR software or hardware for the sake of that experience. 

But things have moved incredibly rapidly. Abrash's presentation was in February. Since then - and I started writing this in mid-April - Facebook already bought the company and Abrash joined the company afterward, reuniting him with Carmack (already Oculus CTO). 

It's so easy to be optimistic and pessimistic all at once.

On the down side
Facebook's purchase is ridiculous. One of my favorite doom-and-gloom posts about the acquisition came from an old games industry hand, Raph Koster, who always has something thoughtful to say at industry conferences like GDC and DICE:

Facebook’s purchase of Oculus is the first crack in the chrysalis of a new vision of a cyberspace, a Metaverse. It’s one that the Oculus guys have always shared. It wasn’t ever about the rendering for them either. Games were always a stepping stone. It was about placeness, and Facebook is providing the populace.

There are a lot of naive thoughts about the acquisition, and I think Koster comes the closest to giving us pure truth: that the Metaverse, as created by Oculus, is inevitable, and therefore Facebook pre-emptively bought it so as to own the Metaverse.

In this day and age, we do think it's inevitable. The English-speaking world started with the novel Snow Crash in the 90s (where the word Metaverse comes from), created a new image of the world in The Matrix at the turn of the century (similar idea), and most recently published Ready Player One as a new take that presupposes American decline. And in 2009 Japan gave the world Summer Wars, a wonderful and accessible animated film that presupposes that a single company takes over the world of social networking and digital identity, and marries it with pervasive VR.

The Summer Wars version of future events is as far as Koster reaches:

Either way, no matter who wins out, it was never about the rendering. All ... of these visions have one thing in common: the servers.
 
It’s about who owns the servers.
 
The servers that store your metrics. The servers that shout the ads. The servers that transmit your chat. The servers that geofence your every movement.

The astute commentators get this far, and the ones who don't come from the world of sci-fi/anime/games instead put it in the context of Facebook's post-IPO business moves. As that story goes, FB "missed out on mobile" because revenue on mobile was down as the device ratio shifted (because Facebook's expansion was in the mobile-heavy South East Asia region, duh). Never mind that it's now 2014 and Facebook is making investors happily specifically because the company "figured out mobile." The acquisition was to make sure that Facebook doesn't "miss out on" a platform ever again. Because VR is just another platform. It was PCs, then laptops, then smartphones, then tablets, next is VR. 

There's a dystopian vision that follows, and it's tempting. Joshua Topolsky, one of the net's better gadget writers, took a stab at short-form fiction and imagined life with Facebooculus:

"Go Offworld with Coca-Cola today!" bellows a voice from a loudspeaker high above your head. "The adventure of a lifetime awaits... and all you have to do is say yes!" Offworld huh? You haven't been off of Planet Facebook yet — that could be fun. You raise your hand to the sky, pointing a clenched fist towards the blimp above. You extend your thumb upward, offering your endorsement of Coca-Cola. A simple thumbs-up. A like.

It's equal parts Blade Runner, The Circle and Ready Player One. All of which are dystopian. You already get the idea: the Facebook of today is applied to the technology of tomorrow.

Gamers are upset with the acquisition because in this scenario they lose out on their games of today with the tech of tomorrow. Gone are the Assassins and the Colossi and Le Mans - all gamers get are more branded "experiences," with a bit more Hollywood and all the product placement we're already used to. If you see an angry gamer, understand him.

On the up side
But there are two pieces left hugely missing from the picture and all the analysis up to now.

First, gadget writers like Topolsky, smart though they are, never went to business school. They'll remain blissfully ignorant of the fact that Facebook is now a multi-billion-dollar public company with investors, thousands of employees, and entrenched revenue channels. The entrenched revenue is from advertising. That is to say, Facebook is an ad company. They don't do Offworlds. They create paid installs for Candy Crush Saga. That's what investors look for now and will look for in the future.

Second, gaming must lead the way. VR is innately interactive. Suppose Peter Jackson shot Lord of the Rings in VR and you could look in any direction at any time. Where do you look? The answer is where Jackson encourages you to look, but how does he accomplish that? And what happens if you steadfastly refuse to look in the direction of the action? These are the sorts of problems that game design is used to solving. 

Moreover, gamers adopt devices much more rapidly than general consumers. GPU computation is now a field because Quake drove the adoption of the GPU. GLQuake was released in 1997, and within 2-3 years we had a recognizable GPU industry and a glut of 3D games. Video game consoles reach their adoption inflection curves on the same scale of time. Compare that to mass-market devices like DVD or Blu-Ray players. The adoption rate hits peak acceleration closer to a decade post-release.

So, compare the two "flavors" of VR. On one hand we have gaming VR, which already has work done by Valve, Oculus, and Sony and Nintendo, companies with business knowledge in interactive experience, marketing to early adopters and technical knowledge in 3D graphics. On the other, we have a hypothetical mass-market VR industry with Coca-Cola Offworlds dominated by a web advertising company with business knowledge in advertising and technical knowledge in database performance. 

One vision is more credible than the other. 

In the same way Google looks stupid chasing Facebook using Google+ when it still owns search, Facebook will look stupid chasing whatever company ultimately dominates VR when its shareholders watch for monetized app installation. If Facebook exercises control over Oculus, that company won't be the dominant player. If Oculus independently becomes the dominant player, activist shareholders will demand that Facebook spin the company back out.

The really up side
The best news possible came at the end of our news flurry: that Michael Abrash rejoined John Carmack at Oculus. Abrash and Carmack did something truly incredible back at id when they wrote the Quake engine. And, according to Abrash that work had been inspired by Snow Crash:

Sometime in 1993 or 1994, I read Snow Crash, and for the first time thought something like the Metaverse might be possible in my lifetime. Around the same time, I saw the first leaked alpha version of Doom. ... [Carmack didn't offer me a job at id] until after he had talked for a good two hours about how he was going to build cyberspace, and by that time it was hard for me to imagine doing anything else ... It's amazing what a team of ten mostly untrained twenty-somethings in the Black Cube in Mesquite, Texas, managed to accomplish – but it wasn't the Metaverse.

So now, as the story goes, the two of them are back together to achieve that dream once and for all. Abrash and Carmack both spoke independently on the capital investment required to finish the job and that Facebook can definitely provide that. 

Abrash:

For example, there are half a dozen things that could be done to display panels that would make them better for VR, none of them pie in the sky. However, it's expensive engineering. 


I have a deep respect for the technical scale that FB operates at. The cyberspace we want for VR will be at this scale. 

The fact that the dream is alive and kicking for Abrash and Carmack, and that they're working together again, should create gleeful, bounce-off-the-walls, best-E3-announcement-ever levels of hype. 

There's no reason to think that these two guys won't give the world the Metaverse.

It will solve the Jaded Gamer Problem because it has to. Old gaming buddies will come out of the woodwork and reunite in whatever the first killer app is. It'll certainly be a game: a new Minecraft, a new Quake, a new World of Warcraft. Gaming is not only the most appealing application, but it's where the R&D has been done, it's where the creative knowledge lies, and it's marketed to the group most likely to rapidly adopt new technology.

Inevitably, it will slow down and start to get boring. Think of early Facebook. Every day on the service was exciting. New people joined or a major new feature would appear. But the potential at the time felt endless. (Especially because on a college campus it was a free dating service. That helped.) Now Facebook is something we like to disconnect from, like email. Things that we once specified as hobbies (usually to the ends of the dating service) are now Liked Pages, just another ad delivery channel. VR will commercialize and get stale. Carmack put it best:

The experience is too obviously powerful, and it makes converts on contact. The fairly rapid involvement of the Titans is inevitable.

Our generation, at least, will want to occasionally disconnect from a commercialized virtual world. We'll all go back to being jaded gamers.

And if Abrash's dream comes true, the Metaverse in VR form will be "the final platform." The Jaded Gamer Problem will be made permanent.

So, gamers: we may have only one great platform launch left in our lives. Get hype.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/683471 2014-04-28T20:26:13Z 2014-04-28T20:26:14Z Year in review
Back at the start of 2013, I posted a few goals. How'd I do?

-Snowboarding and hot springs in Hokkaido: close. I did Niigata prefecture, which isn't quite Hokkaido but is still great.
-Visit Korea or Taiwan: Nope. I was flat broke while living in Tokyo.
-Scale Musivu: Success! We went from (nearly) zero to 1,250 students in 2013 and launched our own service.
-Attend the F1 Japan GP: Nope. Missed in 2012 due to bad luck; missed in 2013 because I left the country a few weeks before the GP. Hoping to hit the Austin one in 2014.
-More nights out with the boys from work: Success! I drank more and slept less, and that generally helped my mood - until I crashed and burned and hated everyone at work. Still, I got out more.
-More nights out in somewhere Tokyo: Moderate success. There were one or two Sunday nights out, which were a riot, but overall there wasn't as much crazy all-nighter action as when I was younger.
-Play more games: Fail. I moved in the opposite direction despite investing in a 3DS and laptop at the end of 2012.
-Some misc. professional goals that wouldn't make sense outside Rakuten's intranet: Stopped being relevant during 2013.

All in all, that's:
4 successes
3 failures
1 misc. case

So 2013 was a minor win, after a rough 2012!

On to 2014 goals. Better late than never. I'm choosing the things I came home for, and the things on my mind when I arrived:
-More time with best friends and family
-Preserve good shape
-Scale Musivu more
-Relax a little more
-Find a new hobby stateside
-Create a more independent career
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/663238 2014-03-12T22:33:49Z 2014-03-12T22:33:50Z Happy 25, Web
You may be aware that it's the 25th birthday of Tim Berners-Lee's initial release of the Web.

I think I've been on it for about 20 years of that 25. I still remember the late family friend who brought home a boxed copy of Netscape and helped my family install it. That would've been around '93, mayyyyyybe '94. Windows 3.1 days, for sure.

From the first connection, I was in love. I shook with excitement about the endless possibilities about what I could find out there.

The sense of potential, of unexplored territory, has stuck with me ever since. The first times I saw strange languages used in someone else's everyday life - like Japanese - sparked a deep and insatiable curiosity. That curiosity has defined my life in the macro sense. 

Nowadays, that incredible bridging of geography is so commonplace. We're all cosmopolitan. We all know Pocky comes from Japan and we can order it from Amazon. We all know every note to every song by Frenchmen called Daft Punk or Phoenix. We watch Korean StarCraft replays and don't mind the Korean text. The Chinese all watch American TV shows, professionally subtitled by dedicated amateurs, hours after airtime in the US. There's a multilingual, multinational cultural Utopia out there, just waiting for you to click.

In my estimation, that cosmopolitanism once began as a rare spark - "Holy crap, we can do that now! The Internet is awesome!" - for each of us. For me, it was '93.

I spent an "unhealthy" amount of time on the Web as a young'un, and we now live in times when a typical job involves 8 hours seated at a computer with Web access.

Looking back a little bit, I remember that the Internet gave my high school self summer jobs (IT, Web sites) and my fun activity in the evening (online gaming). That created a career in the Web business for me that I now enjoy daily. I have occasional gripes about work - who doesn't? - but my job is my thing; it's not like I'm selling shoes all day.

Looking back as far as I can, though, show me images from my earliest days on the WWW and you'll see my face soften into a smile. You'll be taking me back to my childhood.

So this is how I'll chill.. from '93 til...
)

Happy birthday, Web. I love you.

PS - My handheld computer just turned itself on to let me know I have a message from my girlfriend in Tokyo. If I knew any of that would happen in '93, I'd have been crying tears of joy.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/656764 2014-02-21T02:01:50Z 2014-11-10T01:36:41Z Nintendo's Strategy Shift: Serious, and Japanese, and Actually Kinda Bold
I meant to hit the "publish" button on this one while it was still news. Oops. Just pretend it's still January 30, when Nintendo held a press conference to discuss its strategic shifts.

Western media is largely unimpressed with Nintendo's strategic "changes" announced today by Iwata-san. Ars Technica, one of the more responsible gaming outlets, called it "a vague, confusing, unfocused vision." Geek's Russell Holly concluded that it is "a strange strategy." 

As usual, the media gives The Big N short shrift, but if you put on your Japanese Company Goggles there's plenty of reason for optimism.

Observers in the echo chamber (who may or may not be shareholders) have demanded that Nintendo put its games on other platforms for two reasons:
1. Because iPhone (hundreds of millions of devices, compared to tens or just millions of devices). Never mind that one's a phone and one is just for people who play games.
2. Because Sega left the hardware business and that's the only precedent we have for a company with strong IP that launches some dud hardware (and "Will Nintendo do something it said it would never do?!" makes for a great teaser if you're in the media business).

These are awful reasons. Nintendo asserts that its core is integration of software and hardware. And for as long as Apple fans will draw parallels to Nintendo, there's something to that assertion, and it’s one that logically precludes the aforementioned bad ideas.

Iwata-san was right to call out as short-termist everyone demanding that Nintendo chase the smartphone industry. What, you thought they'd sell great games on a platform with no controllers, or worse, try to beat Apple at its own game by building a phone? Microsoft itself builds a great phone, has a huge head start in software, is a major force in the gaming business and still can't get a word in edgewise in the cell phone market. Suggesting Nintendo do it is ignorant of market realities.

Or you thought that Nintendo would publish games on the big-dog platforms and happily let its fate fall to Apple or Google, the opaque gatekeepers who ruin small developers overnight with unexplained decisions, rejections and bans, with zero accountability? What nonsense.

What is happening with Nintendo and smartphones? That one's easy. Polygon helpfully pulled out a quote from Reggie in December in which he said the company is "constantly thinking about how to leverage mobile as a marketing vehicle." Most observers miss that one of Nintendo's core strengths is actually marketing. Nintendo Power? Pure brilliance. Nintendo Direct? Same thing, new generation. 

So the logical conclusion is: Nintendo's marketing machine will come to your smartphone. Think Nintendo Direct, think Club Nintendo, think Nintendo Network and Miiverse, think very small game experiences. Reggie himself came to Nintendo from P&G, the consumer products conglomerate. Increasing market share in shampoo or toothpaste is the work of a very well-oiled marketing machine, and Nintendo's own isn't that far off when you consider that the tone of their campaigns always speaks to the masses and never to the hardcore.

I admit, there are some places where the Iwata-san's remedies are just too weak. Better use of NFC, even the link-up with the pervasive Suica card in Japan, isn't of much interest when payments aren't that painful on a Wii U. Any reduction in that friction is welcome, of course, but you can tell it's too weak when the measures have no gameplay implications and won't make it over to non-Japan consoles.

Edit 11/9/14: Boy, did I get that one wrong. NFC powers Amiibo, aka their take on Skylanders, aka the thing that saved Activision's bacon once Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft faltered. Cash cow incoming. Moving on...

The other weak point in the armor is using health as the rallying point for areas where Nintendo is going to make your life better and more fun. Yes, wearables and fitness don't exactly have a dominant strategy yet. Yes, there are other possibilities in cooking, or education, or whatever else, like the DS did unbelievably well in Japan. Yet none of this really stirred the imagination. When Nintendo pitches a new console well it's like your brain starts pondering the possibilities based on the hardware combinations. No such pondering here, just vague products on the spectrum between shovelware and boring. 

But there was one point that was actually revolutionary, and this'll be the one that rights the ship: Nintendo's going to get smart about analytics.

In typical Japanese fashion, the point was pretty well buried. Here's the money quote from the English transcript:
Based on our [newly integrated across systems] account system, if we can offer flexible price points to consumers who meet certain conditions, we can create a situation where these consumers can enjoy our software at cheaper price points when they purchase more. Here, we do not need to limit the condition to the number of software titles they purchase. Inviting friends to start playing a particular software title is also an example of a possible condition. If we can achieve such a sales mechanism, we can expect to increase the number of players per title, and the players will play our games with more friends. This can help maintain the high usage ratio of a platform. When one platform maintains a high active use ratio, the software titles which run on it have a higher potential to be noticed by many, which leads to more people playing with more titles.
This is huge. At once, Nintendo has decided to employ analytics, smarter customer segmentation, discriminatory pricing, and social game user acquisition tactics. We've collectively spent the last several years laughing at this company for its seeming inability to handle social features or run an online shop, and in one fell swoop they've decided to pick up the parts of the Internet business that can really affect the bottom line. 

Let me qualify the last paragraph: for a large Japanese company, this is huge. As a former analytics director for another large Japanese company, I can see how this effort would have required Herculean efforts of consensus-building and shifting of mindset. That glacial pace also explains Iwata-san's exhortations about maintaining $30 DS game price points years ago in the face of the App Store's race to the bottom back in ’10.

I think that also explains why the other efforts - the "health" vertical, the low expectations surrounding smart devices, the NFC stuff, the silly quick boot feature - seem so tame to us. Japanese companies are naturally very risk-averse, so executives sticking their necks way out there on a drastic "pivot" would seem insane to an audience of Japanese investors. If you're wondering about Sega doing exactly that around 2000, know that Sega was facing bankruptcy at the time and Nintendo isn't now. 

What the "transformed" Nintendo will look like several years on is still a little unclear, in my opinion. The tame measures may not bring back the windfall that the Wii and DS gave, but Nintendo has truly chosen to double down on one of its strongest suits: its marketing.

However that new Nintendo looks in ten years' time, know this: Nintendo will still be around.
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Blake Ellison
tag:blakerson.com,2013:Post/634502 2013-12-25T20:32:32Z 2013-12-25T20:32:33Z Christmas Morning

It's early on Christmas morning and naturally, the child is awake before the parents.

It's not the ridiculous excitement of presents, of course. This year I unceremoniously overtook my mom in the income column, which results in Adult Christmas.

It's the kind of Christmas where presents are small in scale - no more big ticket purchases, no more big airplane ticket purchases... really, one tries to minimize the Tickets, Purchases, and Big. The kind of Christmas where the best possible thing is to sleep in gloriously and have some good wine later in the day.

It's also the kind of Christmas where you finally appreciate that having a home, and heat, and a loving family of any size truly are blessings. I experienced life without these things at times in 2013. A lot of musicians I follow on Facebook are saying influential things right now, like reminders to be grateful for those very things, or to call the family and friends rather than texting them. 

I'm taking the vacation opportunity to write, since I've had a chance to get some rest.

While there's small presents being exchanged here at Chez Blakey, I bought my own Big Exciting Don't Want to Sleep Present.

It's a Wii U. Shocking, I know.

I created an artificial constraint for myself by plugging things in to the living room TV. While I did an amazing "stealth install" - hiding systems inside a hollow cabinet thought to be for speakers, and fully enjoying wireless controllers - I'm now limited to three HDMI cables with which to plug in all my "next-gen" goodness.

Three console makers equals three systems plugged in, right? Nope - an Apple TV snuck in and took one slot, leaving me with two consoles.

The Xbox 360 and PS3 being there were once no-brainers. But once the Wii U was plugged in, one had to go.

Gamers who know my habits could jump to the conclusion that the PlayStation 3, with its weak UX and de-unified online experience, had to go. But no! The 360 has been retired.

Ever since I got a 360 in 2007, it's been delightful. Halo 3 provided so much fun that it alone was worth the price of admission. I believe that Xbox Live Arcade truly brought us indie games, moreso than anything Steam was doing in 2007. And the Humble Indie Bundle wouldn't even exist for another three years beyond that. Sony and Nintendo also followed in Microsoft's footsteps, followed by Apple in 2008 with the App Store, yielding the entire small/indie/bite-size/$3/$10/$15/$30 world we have today. Back in 2007, I experienced indie nirvana with Lumines for XBLA, and I may hook the 360 back up offline just to enjoy that some more. 

The 360 was also the first console to evolve. Remember this?

It's the wee little young Xbox 360 interface. Back when it was just a baby Xbox.

Over the last seven years the system grew up into an awesome adult, one that worshipped at the altar of Good UX, carrying in tow the totems of Netflix and Last.fm to lead us into a streamed living room of The Future.

But like all adults, it went off and did its own thing. In the last two years - when my own unit was unplugged and I was off in Japan, a land not known for its Xbox 360s - it continued evolving in a way that no longer jived with me. The reunion this fall was like some adult reunions where you find you no longer have anything in common with someone you used to know quite well. 

Good UX was replaced with account migrations and verification codes and email confirmations. This series of events actually happened, but is in chat transcript form for dramatic re-enactment:

MS: You have to have a secondary email address for security.
me: (choose the one on file)
MS: OK, now you have to have another one.
me: Ugh. (enter in another address)
MS: OK, verify that one with the 4-digit code we sent.
me: UGH. *gets off couch, checks email* *enters 4-digit code*
MS: OK, now click the link we sent to the secondary email.
me: @#$(*@ *clicks link*
MS: OK, so verify this using the primary security email.
me: WHAT THE FUCKING HELL MICROSOFT. *clicks button to have email sent to the *first* email.*
MS: OK, we just emailed your *first* email a security code. Enter that.
me: Jesus Christ, fuck this, I'm buying a PS4. *copy and pastes code*
MS: *cleverly offers a 'I use this address often, don't ask me for more codes' checkbox*
me: is this over yet?
MS: Are you sure you want to add this secondary email?
me: YES FOR FUCK'S SAKE I'M CANCELING MY SURFACE 2 AND XBOX ONE AND GOING ENTIRELY OVER TO APPLE. KNOCK IT OFF.
MS: I'm not going to /tell/ you you're done, but you're now in an options menu and probably done and HAY 2-FACTOR AUTHENTICATION THAT'S COOL RIGHT? WOULD YOU LIKE HELP?
me: *burns a house down*
The online connectivity I once knew as "watch Netflix and download games digitally" was replaced with this strange thing. "Content" may be my least favorite word of the century. I get that people on the business side need an aggregate term for downloadable games, levels, modifications, Avatar material, music, movies, and TV shows, but abstracting all of that goodness into a wholly neutered word when facing consumers is saddening.

Worse still, this Content in the generic form took over the dashboard via advertising. Maybe it wasn't so apparent to users who stuck with the console over the last two years and watched a gradual evolution. But when I left, the dash was some common services and one banner ad. Upon my return, Content invaded with an ADD-inducing overload of videos of game footage, movie trailers, movie ads, music videos, and... where is my game collection again?

We usually refer to the console "life cycle" just as a matter of business, a matter of course, a matter of inventory. But with the 360, there has been a true life cycle: a birth, a youthful prime, a stable maturity, and a senile twilight. 

Sadly, death will eventually arrive. We've already ushered in an era where games die and are erased from availability and the collective memory. Nobody misses a failed MMO, but millions will miss World of Warcraft once Blizzard determines it's no longer worth running (I predict it'll be before 2020). Games with omniplayer features may find themselves crippled or unplayable once the servers are killed. Compare that to Mario Kart 64, which I can plug in assuming I still own a Nintendo 64 and a TV with RCA inputs. 

As with indie games, Microsoft (with publishers' blessing) will be the vanguard of gaming death. Xbox Live 360 will eventually die, as the original did before it, but could easily take with it your server access, your Content Licenses, and everything else. 

All of it makes some family time, a sweater, a pair of socks and a warm dinner sound downright refreshing.
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Blake Ellison