Why Kinect will win

In two words: Dance Central.

This E3 was the year of cool devices: Kinect from MS, Move from Sony, and the 3DS from Nintendo, better known as The Guys Who Already Did Motion Control or This Year's E3 Winner.

Hardcore gamers who have been calling the shots from this year's E3 have looked at Kinect with a more-than-healthy dose of skepticism. Yes, developers will be tempted to crank out shovelware that involves jumping and full-body waggling. But relative to the Wii, there are two big advantages: computational horsepower and full-body motion.

The result of this is a huge coup for Microsoft in the form of Harmonix's next-gen mega-hit-to-be, Dance Central. This game will be huge with the college crowd, where dance crews are now so in. Talent shows have been replaced with dance contests on campuses nationwide. A game that exploits the fantasy of proficiency in something cool and creative (see: Guitar Hero / Rock Band) will always be a winner. A game that does this for a new field (hip-hop dance) will be a hit. A game that does all of this for whatever the college kids are doing right now and watching on MTV later tonight is going to sell 2 million copies overnight and 2 million more as it trickles on to significant others and little siblings. And unlike the rhythm games we've come to expect, it'll cost less than $100 for a group of 4 to play.

My preorder will be placed in short order. You're all invited to come dance on launch day.

2 responses

i think the technology behind kinect is cool but when i think of the people in my life that i see spending money on and actually playing games it's breaks up into a few groups:

upper 20s - mid 30s males, likely overweight / anti-social. very much into shooting things or casting spells.

young (i.e. lacking a credit report) males getting their parents to buy games. also into shooting things, casting spells. may also be interested in social games (think mario party)

parents, grandparents, casual gamers between 24 and 80. sometimes bored, looking for some fun, have money to blow.

the problem i have with kinect is that i don't see any of these groups playing video games so they can get up and move around. in fact, it's the opposite. for the most part these people are playing games to veg out and be entertained in a less brain dead manner than watching a movie. this is why the wii was such a success with just about everyone i know. it didn't *require* much more physical motion than previous generation gaming yet it involved enough motion and gesture that anyone successful at interacting with the real world had enough coordination to play a video game.

to me, kinect looks like a technology that will require people to learn new, non-intuitive ways of interacting with a computer (i.e. what would i do if these 2D screen character was a 3D person...akwaaarrrrd) as well as require people to exert a bunch of energy when they don't want to. in other words, games are synonymous with chilling out and having fun. now Microsoft has the not so easy task of convincing people that when they feel like playing a game to chill out and have fun they should instead practically do exercise and may be have fun.

so awesome technology but a hard sell. also incredibly awkward. that milo demo was weird.

— aroon pahwa

I disagree on a lot of points.

-Demographics: The Wii won this generation on its mass appeal, despite introducing physical motion into gameplay. End of discussion.

-Physical activity: Believe it or not, lots of people enjoy physical action in their games. Wii Fit is the second best-selling Wii software. It's the Wii's killer app, especially outside the US where the system isn't bundled with Wii Sports. Rock Band, if not physically then mentally, is much more involving than mindless TV. Again, also a big big seller.

-New interfaces: You, of all people, knocking new computer interfaces? I'm stunned. Voice control (when it's good) is intuitive, practical and even audience-widening (think of those with physical disabilities in their hands who can't use controllers). Facial recognition *should* remove authentication layers, getting users going faster. The set-top-box benefits (see: ESPN3 on 360) should be just as big as the in-game ones.

Games are still going to involve chillin and having fun. Yes, there will be exercise shovelware and jump-a-thon party games, but the same thing didn't stop the Wii from being where a lot of people go to have fun. I'm not worried, and neither should you be.

But yeah, Milo is funky.

— Blake Ellison

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