I'm back! It's E3 2015! (Also, sorry I'm late!)

First, two necessary disclaimers:

  • It's noteworthy that I neglected to write about E3 here last year, so my most recent E3 post was from 2013. 2012-2014 proved to be an uncomfortable phase in life. Add to that my lack of interest in what was going on in gaming at the time. I'm happy to report that that's all changed and I was able to bring my characteristic interest, passion and predictions back for this year. More about this soon, but a big part of it was...
  • I'm now an employee of Sony working on the PlayStation Store, so I'm obliged to start with the comment that these opinions are my personal ones and not those of Sony the company. There's no secret/unreleased info here, and while it would be easy to call me biased, I plan to continue to call 'em as I see 'em. More after the run-down.
  • Bonus third disclaimer: I'm very late! This was a lot to work through. Sorry about that. 

1. The manufacturer and publisher pressers still rule the day.

These events are still by far the most efficient in terms of the game info delivery per unit of time ratio. 

There are a lot of red herrings, which I'll condense to a rule of thumb: what causes cheers and applause may not sell, and what sells may not cause cheers and applause. 

That said, I think we all like to take the overall temperature of a manufacturer/publisher by their overall quality and breadth of games shown, as well as the tenor of the event. (Also, it is still encouraged to get on the hype train for games you think you'll love.)

I'll take the manufacturers in chronological order:

Nintendo comes first, because I think their Nintendo World Championships event should count as their presser. The fanboys were assembled in the theater, there was a great show put on by all involved, and the appearances by Miyamoto-san and Reggie lit the place up. 

New IP and upcoming releases not only showed up, but they showed up in really interesting and creative ways. A new mecha-football game on 3DS was newly announced and a competition title at the same time. Super Mario Maker's use in the tournament shows its creative potential (and humor potential). A DLC announcement for Smash 4 was greatly performed, too.

Their true presser, a YouTube presentation, showed a relatively weak hand. New Zelda on 3DS appears to be the highlight. The new Star Fox finally showed up, and it is indeed Star Fox. I'll buy it and enjoy it. Seeing none of the new flagship Zelda for Wii U was a disappointment, but on the other hand after that game the Wii U console may well be a lame duck.

But Nintendo will be fine. More on them later.

Microsoft comes next, and they ... didn't seem to change much. I should lead with their strong suit: HoloLens may just be magical. The Minecraft demo looked really, really fantastic. 

Unfortunately, MS has a history of polished tech demos that don't live up to the magic. In 2010 I was pulled in by the magic of Kinect and the potential of Dance Central. It didn't work fantastically in actual living rooms, and the hardware was optional, so it sank. Two Ars Technica reports (here's the latest) lament a "startlingly small field of view" on HoloLens prototype devices. 

There was some stuff that one would think couldn't go wrong (but did). Oddly, MS led off with announcing backwards compatibility with the 360. This is a feature that only matters at launch, when the library is lacking and the previous generation is still going strong. 2 years in, the One and the PS4 are both mainstream consoles producing great games. Combine that with some weirdly couched language about discs and permissions and downloading, and one gets the impression that it's limited-release emulation, closer to Nintendo's Virtual Console than across the board back-compat. That's going to irritate gamers when the feature doesn't work for their game of choice. 

The Elite Controller looks great, I bet it feels great, and it's customizable... but it's retailing for $150? What? eSports types might spring for it, but that is a small audience.

Aside from that, their game content seemed hamstrung by a smaller first-party portfolio compared to Nintendo or Sony. The only memorable presentations were Halo 5 and Gears 4. And those were honestly lacking impressiveness.

In my experience, the Gears presentation wasn't visible. Everything was too dark. To Tycho at Penny Arcade, who has opinions on the franchise, it was less impressive for other reasons:

The demo of Gears of War 4 was, in my opinion, the only off note in the Microsoft press thing.  That’s not an indicator of a bad product or anything like that, there’s no way to know.  I’m saying that was a bad part to show and the whole thing just needs to bake.  Gears is, like Warmachine or Doctor Who, one of my things.  This means that I extend it some sympathy, because it does something uncommon, something I can’t get elsewhere.  Even then, with an optimal audience, I couldn’t find much to hold onto.

MS got to include some third-party and multiplatform stuff, like Square Enix's rebooted Tomb Raider and Ubisoft's The Division. The association with the Tomb Raider demo came off to me as MS trying to respond to the Uncharted franchise over in Sony's house, which is a system-seller unlike Tomb Raider. (That's a give-and-take thing: MS caught up and won in racing sims. Halo is still better than Killzone.) But the game is ultimately multiplatform and credit is due to Square Enix for making such an impressive-looking demo. 

MS needs to get called out for the only presser out of about 10 that was laden with buzzwords like "innovation," "scale" and "epic." They might have missed the memo about getting the core audience back with an E3 showing. 

Sony did much the same thing they did two years ago as well: respond with more games. Sony easily had a higher games-per-second ratio than the other guys.

But man oh man, did they play the announcement card well. (Yes, "they" - I'm in a separate subsidiary from Sony Computer Entertainment, oddly enough, and it's not like I was on the team that put this together anyway.) Starting the whole thing with The Last Guardian - a game assumed long gone - shook the audience awake. Later on they brought up Yu Suzuki to plug a Kickstarter campaign for Shenmue III - a game that was known to be long gone. 

And then... 

If The Last Guardian and Shenmue III were gaming treasures thought lost, then remaking Final Fantasy VII on the new generation of consoles is like the Holy Grail. (Full disclosure: it's multiplatform.) And the modern Japanese part of Square Enix can always find new ways to disappoint its fans (see: Final Fantasy after X; iPhone releases). But Sony's purchase of the timed exclusive means it gets announced by Sony and all the minds are blown in Sony's conference. 

If we still play the "Who won E3?" game based on the aforementioned temperature-taking, Sony won this year handily. 

2. Once and for all, here's the rule for PC gaming vs console gaming ups and downs.

A long, long time ago there was a column written by some gaming blogger that suggested that the best gaming to be had can be had on PC or on console, depending on the season. 

What it really comes down to is console lifecycles. If the console is in its peak of lifecycle (2-5 years in), that platform will have the best gaming experience possible. If you're at the end of a cycle and the start of a new one, the PC will have the best experience. 

That blogger was right, and it's surprising that the rest of the world hasn't caught on to that. 

PC is great for innovating gameplay ideas in indie development, business models, faster hardware, and now we're seeing that PC got to VR and AR first. The console will incorporate PC's ideas, polish them, and make them more available to all, but it'll have to wait until the next lifecycle to accomplish most of that.

So while it's cute that there was a "PC Gaming Day" with Day[9] hosting and a theater full of PC gaming fans, right now it's the console's turn to shine. The PC will continue to quietly develop new ideas and practices, and I bet in another 5 years the PC Gaming Day will be where it's at.

3. VR (and AR) is coming, but not yet.

The demos just all sound too rough around the edges. An internal Sony writeup from "our guy on the floor" stated as much, and he didn't spare Sony's own Morpheus tech from that review. 

4. Shooters are back. Thank goodness.

For several years, the only shooter game in town was Call of Duty, and we really needed to be saved from that series jumping the shark. While its presence at E3 is still massive (its sales justify that), shooters got a lot of love in the form of Destiny, The Division, Rainbow Six, Dishonored 2, Fallout 4, Doom, Deus Ex, Gears of War, Halo 5, Just Cause 3, and Ghost Recon among still more.

Shooters birthed PC gaming, online multiplayer, put Microsoft on the map, helped Activision stock reach great heights... I really can't imagine why they went away to begin with. But as someone who grew up with those series and their predecessors, I have to say I'm incredibly stoked for the next couple years.

5. Toy figurines are the new cash cow. Nintendo is saved.

For all the dithering we talk about when we talk about Nintendo and their content library on a system that isn't selling like gangbusters, the amiibo figurines are keeping the profits rolling in. This cash will more than suffice to keep them working on their next hardware.

6. We finally have meaningful facial expressions.

Tomb Raider and Uncharted both showed wonderful subtlety in facial expressions. We used to only have the power for very exaggerated facial gestures like a raised eyebrow (Uncharted's Drake used that for just about every sly unsurprised one-liner in the franchise). 

Grand Theft Auto, often the bar for quality in game production, only showed anger from its character animation.

Compare that to voice acting. It's been good in AAA games for over a decade. 

Those two games demoed this year signaled that visual acting will be a thing. That means digital actors, which in turn means we can take advantage of the subtlety of good Hollywood actors. The potential is there technically, but what about financially?

Games to watch!

-Deus Ex: Mankind Divided: After the recent DX game rebooted the franchise successfully, Eidos has no qualms about boasting the legacy of the older games. Personally, I'm super excited to see Eidos Montreal get another crack at this great IP after they constructed such a great world last time and improved upon their design mistakes with the Director's Cut. 

-Tomb Raider: Visually very strong, with a heavy Uncharted influence. Looks very promising. 

-Metal Gear Solid V: We already got a taste in the form of Ground Zeroes, but the finished product looks like it has potential to be gorgeous, deep, and oddly humorous in that most Kojima-ish of ways. Here's the 40-minute gameplay demo, if that's your thing. The game releases soon. It'll probably be a masterpiece.

-Super Mario Maker: Seriously, we've all wanted this for so long. I'm expecting some great stuff to surface.

-Star Fox Zero: New Star Fox! It looks like it's carrying on the tradition. We've had to wait long enough.

-Wattam - the new one from Katamari Damacy designer Keita Takahashi. This one appeared in very brief teaser form previously, but according to Warren Spector, it surprised and delighted him. Quoth Mr. Spector:

(Frankly, I worry that it’s so different, it might run into some commercial difficulties, but let’s hope for the best.) Wattam is a wonder. Soulful in a medium that’s often soulless… a work of childlike wonder… a real sense of discovery… and often laugh-out-loud funny. I just hope people get it. I’m not even going to describe the graphics or gameplay. I don’t have the words. Just trust me on this one…

I haven't seen any of the game in person myself but I definitely trust his judgment and I'll always keep an eye on anything Keita Takahashi does. 


And there we have it! Took quite a while to think through and write, but this year had a great E3 for games overall and for me personally. 

Next year: Will I finally get to see E3 in person?

Fixing Education With Games

The Extra Credits EDU Steam Curators' List explains what I'd do if I were a teacher. 


Each game comes with:
  • Suggested topic (to which the game would be a complement)
  • Suggested minimum play time (eg, it takes 2+ hours to get it)
  • Suggested minimum fluency with playing games
  • A one-sentence lesson plan
A favorite example is for Papers, Please:
(skip to 1:46 to see Papers, Please)

And the curators' comment:  
"Social science. Psychology. Ethics. 1-2 hours. Easy. “A dystopian document thriller”. Use as context for discussing subjects like immigration or ethics."
Imagine you're teaching high school Social Studies and you assign that game to your kids. Their homework is ostensibly to go home and play a game, but it's really to go home and simulate having to make difficult choices of who to let into a country given a variety of realistic constraints. 

Imagine the debate that could follow from that. Kids would come in the next day informed from the real constraints they were given regarding criminal backgrounds, terrorism, trade, or labor economics, and then discuss their choices and why they made them. Beats the hell out of kids coming in the next day and parroting whatever sound bites they've heard on TV, or what they've heard their parents parroting from TV.

It's a shame that kids still have to write essays on AP tests that reference certain books or other creative works, but they wouldn't be able to cite these games and be taken seriously. If you're taking the AP European History exam, your essay rubric may expect mentions of the Age of Discovery and the Dutch East India Company - but if a student were to learn the intricacies of 15th century plundering economics from Anno 1404, they'd be punished on the same rubric. 

The curators' use of minimum time requirements are, I think, more clever than they appear. "Go play this game for about an hour minimum" is an interesting homework assignment, opens up the chance for kids to keep going if they want, and exposes every kid in the classroom to what we in the web/app world call user experience by trying out so many different interfaces and ways of accomplishing things. (I've always meant to write a post to the effect that hardcore gamers are the world's best UX experts.)

Likewise, doing this project via Steam curation group may also be more intelligent than the curators intended. First, the store links are right there, so students can click through to purchase, and teachers can worry less about students falling through the cracks by not going off to the bookstore to purchase. Second, Steam is getting better all the time about system requirements, general PC support, driver updates and the like, which means the average student can really access this stuff even if they're not part of the "PC Master Race" of uber-hardcore gamers. As a minor detail, it's also worthy to note that dedicated curation gives us details in a consistent format regarding play times, topics and the like. 

If I had kids this would be a wonderful way to bring bonding and school to the dinner table. Maybe the homework games wouldn't be at every American's dinner table, but they'd appear daily at mine. 

Gaming Writing is Extinct

This one's been sitting on my mind for a long time, but since the Penny Arcade guys started to touch upon the idea, it's about time I got it all out and laid it to rest:

Gaming writing, games "journalism," whatever you want to call it, is dead.

There's 3 things any gamer needs to know about gaming "journalism" and why it's doomed.

1. Gaming publications have always been controlled by publishing PR.
Gaming publications, dating back to the early 90s print mags, have existed to generate hype for games. The exchange was thus: media (print or web) needed advertisers and content, and publishers could provide both. Take a moment to consider the power dynamic that naturally emerges from an arrangement like that. Short version: publishers win.

If you prefer quantitative proof, consider Metacritic. They annually rank publishers by their aggregate Metacritic scores on all their releases. For 2014, on a 0-100 scale, the lowest average for a publisher is a 62. This is not an industry that delivers bad news. 

Writers who try to deliver bad news (ie that goes against publishers' interests) get pulled in to toe the party line, or fired. Occasionally this becomes public - a site will pull a negative review, publish a more positive one, fire the offending writer, commenters will air their rage, and life goes on. 

2. Games company PR got squeezed out by social media.
Now it's all direct-to-consumer. Publishers no longer have to go through the media, with their inconvenient print lead times or potential to distort the message.

This is great for gamers and publishers alike. Gamers can get their news and cultural fulfillment as they decide. Follow Hideo Kojima to get lots of teasers for his new work - plus see the glory of being Hideo Kojima as he travels the world and noshes on late night ramen. If you're a fan, it's way better than a once-in-five-years magazine profile and preview of the next Metal Gear Solid.

And you can do that for every single one of your gaming loves! You can surround yourself in a customized feed of gaming greatness. The only ads you have to put up with are the ones on Facebook or Twitter.

If you told us in 1995 we'd get digital news directly from every designer and publisher as it broke we'd have dropped our jaws in amazement at the potential to board a Hype Train that's perpetually in motion.

3. All other gaming content is being squeezed out by Reddit.
There's certainly something to be said for the other content that game out of the good game sites - the community stuff. I'll always be nostalgic for the turn-of-the-century PlanetQuake or the original stuff that came out of SomethingAwful and Shacknews forums. 

Nowadays, all of that stuff is originating at Reddit, and "gaming journalism" sites get it. Pretty much the entire world of content websites (not just gaming) is now repackaging high-ranking Reddit (or Hacker News) posts, adding a clickbait headline, and auto-posting to social media. 

The playbook is pretty limited, but it's infinitely exploitable. The most common form is this one:
  • Reddit post: Look what my gf made me! (link to imgur picture of a Portal cake)
  • Post ranks highly because a gamer has a gf + a cake + a Valve reference in the real world
  • Website posts one of these headlines: "Best Gamer Girlfriend Ever? You Decide" - "Would YOU Eat This Portal Cake Made by a Real Person?" - "The Cake ISN'T a Lie: It's Real, and It's Delicious" - "You Won't Believe What Valve Inspired in the Kitchen" 
Another common one is manufactured controversy, which Penny Arcade cheerfully calls out sites for. There's no shortage of feigned outrage on the Internet for PC ports lacking features, or console shooters having the wrong FOV settings, or apparently estimated time consumption in an artificially short session being too short. These things always blow over. Games with these controversies still hit their sales targets. 

This mindless content, if it can survive, doesn't require writers with encyclopedic knowledge of the games industry. Anyone can do that. Thus the gaming publications continue to close. Joystiq was demoted to a gaming section of Engadget recently; Polygon will be next.

You may wonder about reviews in this regime. YouTube and Twitch already fill the void. Individual streamers are already showing an unbelievable amount of footage from every game that comes out, and viewers even get to be choosy about the personalities they ride along with. 

So, what now?

My honest opinion on the decline of all this stuff: good riddance! Let's go have fun!

I'm super happy that I can tailor my gaming coverage to my very particular tastes. Aside from the prior Hideo Kojima example, I get a few Facebook posts a week from the Deus Ex people at Eidos. It'll undoubtedly be how I get my news when the next game is announced, but in the meantime it keeps the series fresh in my mind and that's welcome to me.

So, press, reading, and writing. In a sense, it's a blessing that games have become mainstream enough to pervade common culture. But I question whether I want to read it daily. I don't read any gaming subreddits. Personally, I want a gaming New Yorker, with intelligent longform stories. Imagine a 10,000-word profile on Miyamoto-san or Warren Spector right after Junction Point or Bobby Kotick[1]. But I strongly doubt that such a publication would be commercially viable. 

When intelligent work is viable in terms of audience dollars, the creators appear to lack the discipline to make it happen.  The closest we got was A Life Well Wasted, a podcast that ripped the style of This American Life and applied it to gaming stories. 6 episodes were recorded before the super-stoned-sounding host turned the site into a promo blog for his band. There's an equal argument to be made for Area 5's Outerlands, which was Kickstarted successfully, but it's so far behind schedule it's nearing vaporware status. 

Yet, despite all the drama, it's a great time to be a gamer. Every platform, from PC to PS4 to Wii U to 3DS, is going strong and showing potential for time to come. Prices are low. VR is around the corner. Moral of the story: read less, play more, discuss with your friends.







[1] Kotick actually has been profiled by the NYT and it's a great read: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/16/business/bobby-kotick-of-activision-drawing-praise-and-wrath.html?pagewanted=all

The Economy and The Future

Sam recently wrote that he's optimistic about the US economy. It's a fun position to take. I'll take the opposite side of the bet, and I'm bringing with me knowledge that Japan is actually an economic forbear to everything the US has experienced.

So, I'll take on Sam's points, one by one, and extrapolate where Japan implies we're actually going:

1. Real growth is low, and trending lower, and will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Japan is on its third Lost Decade of zero growth. There, a real estate bubble burst that produced systemic shocks like permanently increased structural unemployment, underemployment of youth, and permanently flagging demand. 

The only exceptions to these times are fiscal or monetary stimulus. Japan has tried a lot of stimulation over the years and generally nothing worked - thus, there were no easy policy answers when the global financial crisis hit. There's finally been a change with Japan's most recent QE (monetary stimulus) on an unprecedented scale. With that and a foreign currency intervention (not an option to the USA), Japan's markets had a banner year in 2013. 

However, the jury's out on the effects - it's just too soon to tell. The bulls may win it when Japan gets away with structural reform, as The Economist predicted last week. Or the bears may win it when it triggers a sovereign debt crisis, as economists like Takatoshi Ito have predicted. Personally, I think both of these will happen on much smaller scales: some reforms will pass, most will fail, and Japan will be left with an ever-growing debt pile.

2. Government debt is high, and we will slowly boil like frogs as it grows ever higher
Remember the euro zone crisis? That feels so long ago in Internet Time, but it was really a serious sovereign debt crisis triggered when countries' debts exceeded 100% of GDP. 

Japan's debt is well over 200% of GDP and climbing. Reports from WSJ's Japan Real Time blog in 2013, citing Japan's Ministry of Finance, predicted 227% in spring 2014 and 250% to close out the year. 

It was thought that Japan could withstand a higher percentage thanks to a higher savings rate than the US and that Japanese retail investors pretty commonly buy Japanese domestic debt. Japan has finally issued a government bond that wasn't eagerly snapped up early this year.

But there doesn't seem to be consensus on the ceiling that triggers rapid inflation or a sovereign debt crisis. If there were, Japan would avoid that number like the plague.

3. Government spending is high and will remain so for as long as the US is a democracy
Government spending in the US is a function of demography. Entitlements are the bulk of the spending, and the two big entitlements are Social Security and Medicare. Both apply virtually only to senior citizens. 

Senior citizens are reliable voters, which means no legislator can cut into those entitlements. Demography means that we'll have more and more senior citizens, thus producing even more political pressure to preserve and even bolster entitlement benefits. 

There is no meaningful reform to entitlements that is consistent with modern electoral practice.

Japan is ahead of us on the demographic rollercoaster, and even with the benefit of cheaper health care they can't control their entitlements either. It doesn't help that pensions start at age 60 and Japan has one of the world's highest life expectancies.

4. Interest rates are low and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
This really goes hand-in-hand with point 1 - a Keynesian economist (and I do side with Keynes) would lower the interest rate to stoke any sort of activity. Japan hit zero a long, long time ago and already set a "target" of 2% inflation back when I was in school. Sound familiar?

Also: remember that Japanese government bond that didn't sell? It didn't trigger a panic or even the inflation that Japan openly wants. The American inflation bears might take note of that.

5. Personal savings rates are low and will trend toward zero as individuals' wages stay at or below subsistence levels.
The US's savings rate peaked above 10%, but the Japanese savings rate peaked at over 25% as the economy reached its advanced stages in the early 1980s. It stayed above 10% through the 90s and finally plummeted to low single digits at the start of the century, matching that of the US.

The US is just now seeing research coming out stating that those who come of age in recessions never catch up with other generations in earnings, basically creating a population cohort that is chronically unable to maintain the living standards of their predecessors or successors. 

Japan started that whole trend with its first Lost Generation in the 90s. Since then, Japan has added another Lost Generation or two and its Gini coefficient has crept upward. We've just unleashed our first Lost Generation on the world, laden with tens of thousands of dollars of debt and degrees in Sociology, and that generation will fail to earn and buy property, creating a further cycle of inequality linked to lower savings.

What will save us
Sam believes that technology and innovation will save us. Japan has created technology in the last three decades, and it hasn't exactly saved them. Countless innovations in miniaturization, optics, lasers, chemicals, textiles, and batteries have kept the country afloat without creating talk of a New Japan or a Japan That Saved Itself. 

Hybrid cars? Japan. Full HTTP over cellular connections? Japan. Nuclear power plants that can survive a 9.0 earthquake? Japan. (It was the apocalyptic tsunami that got it.)

Japan itself? Still not saved; still treading water at 200% debt-to-GDP, zero interest and zero growth; still obsessed with agriculture, and still attending status meetings 16 hours a day.

Japan's technology and innovation are actually interesting and significant in their impact. But even those aren't macro enough to change things enough to say Japan is Saved. 

What will? I think Sam's themes in his recent Request for Startups - energy, food-and-water, health care, education and improved productivity - fit the bill very well. Anything less stands to be mocked on Silicon Valley

It Gets Worse: An iPhone comparison between SoftBank and T-Mobile

As I write, the Internet is atwitter with merger talks between T-Mobile and Sprint.

In the last couple years, T-Mobile has grown rapidly and competed well by marketing itself as a consumer-friendly, scrappy underdog. It's worked well.

In the same time frame, Sprint was acquired by SoftBank, one of Japan's largest and most successful companies. It's also one of Japan's three mobile carriers (unlike the US's four) and led by Masayoshi Son, an outspoken CEO. Son now acts as the face of Sprint.

SoftBank is in both wired and wireless in Japan, so I thought I'd share some distinctions between those two, and with T-Mobile.

Wired Broadband

SoftBank does indeed get credit for bringing high-speed wired broadband to Japan. The introduction of the Internet to Japan was an awkward thing because NTT, once a state-owned phone monopoly, still charged obscene per-minute connection rates that chilled the development of the Internet back in the dial-up days. So there's not much of an apples-to-apples comparison with the US here.

SoftBank did indeed step in with low rates and blow the DSL market wide open. However, that only happened after Japan's government deemed NTT's copper to be a common resource and opened the lines to competition. Son simply saw the opportunity and capitalized.

Mobile

Japan effectively has 3 carriers nationwide: NTT DoCoMo, au, and SoftBank. 

Let me get the easy point out of the way: SoftBank is universally panned for the worst reception, the slowest LTE speeds, and the worst customer service. 

The difference between 3 carriers and 4 (as in the US) seems material: it's close enough to oligopoly to grab the attention of the FTC. This matters, and I'll quantify it by my own experience using an iPhone 5 in both countries, on the relevant carriers, in fall of last year. Pricing has not materially changed since then on either carrier.

iPhone 5 on SoftBank, Japan

Device: $0 up front
unlocked devices not allowed; all devices must be on 2-year contract
Lowest usable monthly bill baseline: $80 (White Plan for iPhone and unlimited data packets)
What's included: 7GB LTE data and no talk time
Talk minutes: 10 cents per minute

Total outlay in two years, if you never make calls: $1,920

After the contract, your device will not be unlocked. ETF is a constant $200 in the first year and $100 in the second year.

iPhone 5 on T-Mobile US

Device: $549 or more up front (example here is a current iPhone 5c, 16GB. I paid $649 when moving last year)
BYOD
Lowest usable monthly bill baseline: $30 (prepaid with automatic credit card billing)
What's included: 5GB LTE data and 100 minutes talk time
Talk minutes: 10 cents per minute

Total outlay in two years, if you almost never make calls: $1,269 (1/3rd cheaper)

No contract, no ETF.

The moral of the story

When Son-san talks to American audiences about wired broadband speeds, he may have a leg to stand on, but it's irrelevant to the transaction that's really at hand. SoftBank the mobile carrier implies Japanese precedents for slower speeds, higher prices, purposely incomprehensible plan structures, rigid contracts, and unhappy customers. 

That makes SoftBank a profitable and successful company in Japan. It doesn't get much better on other carriers because there are only two more and neither of them is interested in price competition.

Personally, I would expect the profitable and successful SoftBank, not the happy-sunshine-unicorns SoftBank, to take control of one of potentially 3 American mobile carriers.